A DWF Ventures research report said it expects the composition of market users to have changed significantly since 2024: early users dominated by information advantages and high-conviction trading are being diluted by a larger-scale retail group motivated by entertainment and high-odds returns. The article said that in Polymarket and Kalshi, the share of information-based trading categories such as politics, elections, and the economy has fallen from about 73% and 96% of trading volume during the 2024 US election period to currently less than 20% and 5%, while the share of sports and parlay trades has risen. DWF Ventures believes that the RFQ parlay model creates information asymmetry, which could cause prediction markets to deviate from their “truth engine” positioning, but higher volumes of entertainment-oriented trades may also bring deeper liquidity and a broader user base.

View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 7
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
TeaAndSlippage
· 8h ago
With the high odds attracting users, how long they can stay is a question mark.
View OriginalReply0
LendingPoolObserver
· 14h ago
DWF’s research report data seems quite solid, but I’m skeptical of the claim about “deeper liquidity.”
View OriginalReply0
PixelatedDriedFish
· 15h ago
The information asymmetry in RFQ routing has been pointed out, and the market maker advantage is too great.
View OriginalReply0
RugProofRita
· 16h ago
Retail investors flooding in is a double-edged sword—liquidity improves, but it’s also true that information quality has declined.
View OriginalReply0
ASolitaryRockBeforeTheVolcano
· 16h ago
Kalshi’s share in sports surges, and even compliant platforms can’t escape becoming entertainment-driven
View OriginalReply0
0xTeaTime
· 16h ago
The truth engine has turned into a casino—this positioning drift is a bit too fast.
View OriginalReply0
NightTideShell
· 16h ago
73%→20%—the drop is too brutal. Where did the old political players go?
View OriginalReply0
  • Pinned