France's performance in the quarter-finals was truly dominant. Mbappé, after missing a penalty in the first half, made up for it with a magnificent strike in the second, scoring his eighth goal of the tournament in the sixtieth minute, and then assisting Dembélé's goal six minutes later to eliminate Morocco 2-0. This victory secured France's third consecutive semi-final appearance, with a crushing advantage in expected goals statistics at 3.04 to 0.14.

Now all eyes are on the match between Spain and Belgium, the winner of which will advance to the semi-finals as France's opponent. This is a rematch of the legendary quarter-final in 1986, where Belgium won on penalties forty years ago. Spain has impressed with its solid defense throughout the tournament, setting a record by not conceding a goal in six consecutive World Cup matches after eliminating Portugal in the round of 16. Belgium, meanwhile, gained a huge morale boost by eliminating co-hosts USA in the Round of 16, but they have a significant absence: midfielder Amadou Onana will miss the rest of the tournament due to injury.

Opta's supercomputer model gives Spain a 59.3% chance of winning in regulation time, compared to Belgium's 18.3%, making Spain the clear favorite. The winner will face France on July 14th in Arlington, Texas, a rematch of the 2024 European Championship semi-final, which Spain won 2-1, should they win today as well.

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