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The one thing worth watching most today is SK hynix ADR officially listing on Nasdaq. A scale of $29 billion — sentiment in Korean equities has already gone through a full cycle: beating expectations, then falling, and then bouncing back again.
This incremental batch of U.S. capital is new pricing. They’re not looking at the Korean retail sentiment around the week Samsung posted earnings; they’re looking at how much the AI storage narrative is worth. The opening price is the most information-dense number today.
The biggest suspense left by last night’s Fed minutes isn’t the minutes themselves — it’s CPI. The minutes tell you what commissioners are discussing, but the probability of another 25bp hike in July still sits at 34.7%, hanging there. That number isn’t high, isn’t low, which suggests capital is waiting for the next data to converge views.
The Fed incorporating AI capital expenditure into economic variables — the underlying message is that part of economic resilience comes from AI. That actually reduces the reasons for rate cuts, not increases them.
Tomorrow is the first validation checkpoint for the U.S.-Iran talks. After Iran played the card of the Strait of Hormuz, signals on both sides remain highly contradictory. Trump said Iran wants to talk; an Iranian official said there are still options that haven’t been used.
Crude oil has already risen to a two-week high. Behind the market’s restraint is waiting for an answer on July 11. If negotiations break down, energy and shipping pricing will need to be rewritten; if they reach an agreement, crude’s upside will turn into a short setup.
In crypto markets, Strategy’s buy window has until July 13 remaining; nothing new was disclosed yesterday. As long as this window stays open, there’s an implicit support logic under BTC.
DYOR, not investment advice