Refined oil prices could see the biggest drop this year; filling a full tank will cost 33.5 yuan less

China News Network and Weixin, July 3 (Wan Keiyi): The next round of pricing for domestically produced refined oil will open at 24:00 on July 3. Based on views from multiple institutions, refined oil prices may see a third consecutive decrease, which would also be the fourth downward adjustment within the year.

Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst at Zhutao Information, told China News Network and Weixin that during this pricing cycle, factors such as the U.S.-Iran reaching a memorandum of understanding and increased navigation volume through the Strait of Hormuz led international crude oil prices to remain generally weak. The average price has fallen significantly compared with the previous cycle. After the crude oil change rate started with a negative value and continued to deepen, expectations for a retail price cut for refined oil were relatively strong.

Zhutao Information’s data monitoring model shows that as of the close of overseas markets on July 1, the change rate of the domestic reference crude oil for the 9th working day was -19.31%. It is expected that gasoline and diesel will be cut by 855 yuan per ton. After converting to per-liter prices—92#汽油、95# for gasoline, and 0#柴油分别下调0.67元、0.71元、0.73元。孟鹏表示，若本轮成品油零售限价确认下调，这将是今年以来的首次“三连降”，私家车单次加满一箱50升的92# for gasoline—consumers will spend 33.5 yuan less.

Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, analyzed that during this round of adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices have continued to fall. Domestic refined oil has the potential to set the largest single adjustment decrease within the year, but the final adjustment amount still needs to follow the official announcement.

China News Network and Weixin noted that since the beginning of this year, domestic fuel prices have undergone 12 rounds of adjustments. The overall pattern is “eight increases, three decreases, and one pause.” Among them, to mitigate the impact of international oil price increases, the state has taken two consecutive regulatory measures on refined oil prices. If this round of adjustment is expected to be lowered as anticipated, the 2026 pricing pattern will become “eight increases, four decreases, and one pause.”

According to the “ten working days” principle, the next retail refined oil pricing adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 17, 2026.

Looking ahead, Liu Bingjuan said that from the supply side, the U.S.-Iran situation has eased significantly, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to gradually return to normal; it has already recovered to about 60% of the level before the conflict. Oil-producing countries such as Iraq also plan to accelerate the resumption of crude oil production, and supply risks have been substantially reduced. From the demand side, major institutions’ forecasts for the global economy and demand are still not optimistic. In Asia, refinery operating rates’ recovery still needs time, but it is currently the U.S. traditional peak season for transportation fuels, so seasonal tailwinds are being released. Demand in the future is expected to improve gradually.

A research report from Tonghui Futures expects that in the short term, international oil prices will maintain a weak range-bound oscillation pattern. The institution mentioned that sharp upward moves are constrained by potential supply increases from fundamentals and macro pressures, while deep declines are supported by factors such as the liquidation of commercial inventories and geopolitical uncertainty. In the future, it will be necessary to closely monitor the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, OPEC+ production policies, and the actual performance of summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere. (China News Network and Weixin APP)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Oil prices