Don’t rush to call the bull run back—those on-chain institutions are starting fights among themselves, each playing their own tune.

Glassnode throws out data: long-term holders are still offloading in tears. The number of BTC sold at a loss within a day hit a peak not seen since the end of 2022. The chips haven’t been cleaned up—so where would a trend reversal come from?

CryptoQuant goes even further, directly labeling this as a bear-market rebound. Don’t overthink it.

Bitwise, though, is bold: this drawdown is only 50%. Compared with the previous two bear markets, it’s more gentle. The bottom is quietly lifting, and institutions have been buying the dips nonstop—secretly accumulating.

The three sides are at each other’s throats—no one can convince the others.

On-chain capital is also battling in both directions. One camp sweep-buys more than 20k ETH without blinking, while the other side simultaneously dumps outward. Retail is panicking, but large players are wrestling—everything looks painfully tangled.

Right now, the market is being dragged along by three external forces.

The Fed has started adjusting its inflation algorithms and balance sheet; the policy path ahead is full of variables. Crypto volatility is only going to get even more erratic.

The AI sector is burning money hard. Big players are one-upping each other, and hot money is clearly flowing into tech stocks. Crypto being diverted is real, not theoretical.

And there’s the US-Iran situation: it hasn’t turned into full-scale conflict, yet it hangs there. What the market is betting on is that oil prices won’t pull a stunt—not that geopolitics is truly stable.

Capital flows are changing too. Overseas money is gradually shifting from US Treasuries toward US stocks. The USD exchange rate swings back and forth—the impact can’t be ignored.

Look closely at the data behind this rally—it’s actually pretty flimsy.

BTC saw more than $20k in liquidations in a day, and shorts contributed more than $87 million. The price was pushed up hard by short liquidation/stop-losses, not by longs proactively attacking.

ETH blew up more than $32 million as well, with shorts again as the main force. SOL is the same. But on the 1-hour timeframe, longs and shorts both got swept—there were long positions and short positions liquidated, a double kill. Both sides hurt.

The level at 64,000 is the lifeline right now.

Hold it, and long confidence can stay stable. If it can’t break through, profits will rush out, and then it’ll have to come back to grind the bottom.

In this situation,千万别上头重仓赌方向. Even institutions haven’t settled the argument—longs and shorts are still alternating in liquidation. The bottom will most likely need to be retested repeatedly.