HYPE at $68—are you brave enough to board?

First, look at the surface: good news keeps coming, but the price just doesn’t break the previous high.

Over the past 7 days it’s up 9%, over the past 30 days it’s up 7%. Market cap of $17.1 billion keeps it firmly in the top 10. 24-hour spot volume is $345 million. But it’s still 11% away from the historical high of $76.87 on June 16. Around $68 it keeps grinding; $72 is the ceiling—break above $77 and it’s a whole new universe.

First thing: Bitwise put it alongside BTC and ETH.

On July 9, Bitwise officially added HYPE to the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), with a weight of 0.93%, kicking out DOT and AVAX.

Why is HYPE able to squeeze in?

In the first half of 2026, the Hyperliquid platform recorded $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in revenue, up 165% year-to-date. Market cap of $15 billion ranks it 10th, 10x DOT and 5x AVAX.

This isn’t a shitcoin—this is DeFi blue-chip with real revenue.

Second thing: 99% of trading fees are used to repurchase HYPE.

About 99% of trading fees are directly used to buy back HYPE from the open market. Since launch, the cumulative buyback is about 46.8 million HYPE, worth about $3.1 billion. Cumulative protocol revenue has surpassed $1 billion, with an annualized run-rate close to $840 million.

Third thing: but there’s a risk—one was just triggered on July 6.

On July 6, about 9.92 million HYPE were unlocked, worth $630 million.

In the early hours of July 8, the Hyperliquid development team transferred 452k HYPE (about $32.32 million); on the day, the price fell 5%.

The knife of every unlock hangs over your head. But historical data shows that in the previous six monthly unlocks, three weeks closed down, three weeks closed up; the average gain was 4.17%. Some unlocked tokens were re-staked rather than sold.

Bull vs bear—judge it yourself

One side says:

Bitwise included it in the top 10 crypto ETF, sharing the same frame with BTC/ETH

Half-year revenue of $320 million; cumulative buybacks of $3.1 billion

Arthur Hayes calls $150; Multicoin sees 319

Weekly trend channel is intact, MACD has stabilized, RSI 55-60 not overbought

Once it breaks $77, the symmetrical triangle target points straight to 95-100

The other side says:

Still 11% away from ATH; $72-77 is a strong resistance zone

On July it unlocked $630 million; the team cashed out $32 million in the early morning

Total supply is 1 billion; currently only 22% is circulating, and FDV is 4x market cap

Key levels

Upper resistance: 72 → 76.87 (ATH) → 85 → 95-100

Lower support: 65-66 (short-term) → 60-62 (iron floor)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 66-67 to enter; stop loss at 65; first target 72—sell half first. After a high-volume breakout above 72, go long on the continuation with stop loss at 68, targeting 77-85.

For swing traders:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 72 before boarding. After breaking ATH, add more; target 95-100.

For long-term believers:

DCA with conviction below 65; targets are $150 from Arthur Hayes and 319 from Multicoin. Position size controlled at 20-30% of total assets, keep cash ready for black swans.

Biggest risk: BTC crashing. HYPE is highly correlated with BTC—once BTC breaks below $60k, all alts have to kneel.

HYPE right now is like ETH in 2020—

99% of people think, “How big can a DEX token really get?” Then institutions/ETFs come in, and it rockets.

On the day HYPE breaks above $77, you’ll realize:

It’s not that HYPE can’t—it's that you couldn’t hold. #GUSD年化升至3.8% #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 #伯恩斯坦称存储牛市可持续至2027年 $BTC $ETH $HYPE