7.10, Wednesday afternoon

After the earlier dip in the morning, it pulled back a little. On the 4-hour timeframe, it closed with a lower wick, which looks like whales resisting—but honestly, the volume didn’t keep up. It’s more like forced-liquidation long closures and a run-out that kicked out a counter-trend dip, not genuine proactive buying.

Right now the price is moving sideways between 62,000 and 64,500. After a few pushes, it’s catching its breath—this kind of sideways range is something I’ve seen a lot. Don’t, just because you see a stop dip, assume it’s the bottom.

Above, in the 64,500–65,000 area, moving averages are dead-crossing and pressing down. On top of that, the daily-level trendline has just broken and is now rebounding back—at this spot, shorting/selling has pretty decent cost-performance.

On indicators: the 4-hour RSI has just climbed from oversold to around 40. MACD is still under the zero line, still lying low—whale momentum hasn’t finished moving yet. Funding rate is still negative; the contract market whales still have the edge. This hasn’t changed.

Also tonight, the U.S. has inflation data. The market is highly divided right now, so even big players before the data don’t dare to move recklessly—so the counter-trend upside is limited. To put it bluntly: before the data, it’s just choppy action; don’t expect a direct V-shaped rebound.

Suggestions:
64200+ light-ship short, wait until the 64,800–65,000 range to make your move.
Target: first look at 63,000; if it breaks down, then watch 62,600.

1790+ short in batches. Steady approach: add to the position when it’s around 1810–1820.
Target: short-term 1,730–1,710; medium-term looks at 1,600.

One last reminder: if tonight’s data unexpectedly turns very bullish, it might push up a bit—if it really reaches your stop-loss level, don’t hesitate; get out when it’s time. But before the overall trend changes, counter-trend bounces are opportunities for whales to sell into traders. Trading—keep your position sizing under control, calculate the risk-reward ratio, and don’t be greedy.
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