Has Bitcoin bottomed out? On-chain data shows that bottom conditions are in place, but confirmation signals have not yet emerged.

On July 10, 2026, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $63,985.3, up 2.48% over the past 24 hours, up 0.72% over the past week, and up 2.46% over the past 30 days. However, when the timeline is extended to a one-year horizon, BTC is still down 45.66% compared with the same period last year. This set of data sketches the core contradiction in the current market: a short-term rebound coexists with long-term pressure.

After experiencing a sharp adjustment in June, when the price briefly fell below $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded from a low of around $57,800 to near $64,000. But in its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted that Bitcoin has been trading below two key moving averages for about five months—namely the True Market Mean at $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $72,200. This means Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount of about 16.5% versus the True Market Mean and about 11.4% versus the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.

Glassnode defines this state as a “deep value zone.” Based on historical experience, a deep-discount trade for such a prolonged period—five consecutive months below the two key moving averages—is a relatively rare deep value cycle in Bitcoin’s history. But “deep value” is not the same as “bottom confirmation.” From three dimensions—on-chain data, off-chain institutional behavior, and the derivatives market—this article breaks down the current Bitcoin market’s process of building a base.

Macro Background: Risk Asset Coupling Under Geopolitical Shocks

Before examining on-chain data, it is necessary to first understand the transmission mechanism from the current macro environment to Bitcoin.

This week, WTI crude oil prices experienced sharp volatility. Driven by the US-Iran military conflict, oil prices surged sharply at one point, and then pulled back after US officials stated that they were still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran and that technical consultations were still ongoing. As of July 10, WTI crude is trading near $72.37. This ups and downs in geopolitical risk directly transmits to risk asset pricing. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 7,543.64, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.30% to 26,206.89—risk appetite was partially restored after oil prices fell.

Bitcoin’s performance in this process has been highly consistent with risk assets: it came under pressure as geopolitical risk heated up, and rebounded as the situation eased. While this linkage is not surprising, it serves as a reminder that Bitcoin’s current pricing is influenced not only by on-chain supply and demand, but also by macro liquidity and geopolitical risk premium.

Liquidity, however, is sending contradictory signals. US M2 money supply has been pushed to a record $22.8 trillion. From historical experience, broad money growth is usually favorable for risk assets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is still contracting, down by about $2.0 trillion versus the 2023 peak. Real yields remain close to 1%, which means the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin is still relatively high. The macro environment is not completely closed off, but the door is not fully open either.

On-Chain Data: Five-Month Deep Value Zone and Capitulation by Long-Term Holders

Returning to on-chain, the most central feature of the current market is that Bitcoin has been operating in the “deep value zone” for about five months.

The two key benchmarks tracked by Glassnode—the True Market Mean ($76,600) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($72,200)—each represent the average cost of active investors and the breakeven point for recent buyers, respectively. Prices staying below these levels for the long term means that, whether it is seasoned active investors or short-term holders who have just entered, the overall position is in unrealized losses.

From a historical cycle perspective, such a long period of deep-discount trading is not common in Bitcoin history. Glassnode points out that the long-term accumulation within the discount range—where new capital continues to be deployed at price levels below the cost basis of recent buyers and the broader active market—has historically formed the foundation for cyclical bottoms. For value-oriented investors, this area is attractive at the valuation level.

However, the key lies in identifying the main source of current downside pressure. Glassnode’s data shows that long-term holders (addresses holding coins for more than 155 days) have become the dominant force driving realized losses in the current market. Specifically:

The share of long-term holder losses rises sharply. In early February 2026, the proportion of long-term holder realized losses as a share of total network realized value was about 15%; by early July, this proportion had risen to 43%. This means that of every $100 in realized losses on the market today, $43 comes from long-term holders cutting positions.

Daily realized loss amount hits a new high since December 2022. On a 30-day moving average basis, long-term holders’ realized losses adjusted at the entity level have recently risen to around $280 million per day. This is the highest level since the FTX collapse and also the second major wave of long-term holder capitulation in this bear market.

The capitulation wave has not cooled down. Unlike the partial cooling that appeared after the first wave, the current long-term holder realized loss metric has not shown any meaningful contraction. Glassnode states clearly that until this indicator compresses substantially, the path for a credible transition into bull market conditions remains blocked.

The micro-level logic behind this phenomenon is that investors who bought near the cycle top in the 2024–2025 period have had their belief thresholds continuously breached after months of decline. Every attempt at a price rebound is met with renewed selling pressure from this group of investors sitting on unrealized losses. This directly explains why Bitcoin’s repeated attempts to reclaim the upper end of the range have repeatedly ended in failure.

It should be noted that even with the current deep discount, the possibility of further downside toward the Realized Price—around $53,000—cannot be ruled out. The Realized Price represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all circulating Bitcoin and is a relatively reliable support reference during bear markets.

Off-Chain Data: ETF Outflows Slow Down, but Institutional Demand Has Not Yet Stabilized

Shifting from on-chain to off-chain, spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows provide another dimension for observing institutional demand.

Net outflows slow but still continue. The 30-day moving average net flow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has moved into a net outflow range since mid-May. In early June, the daily net outflow peak reached $193 million; afterward, it narrowed to about $88.9 million. Glassnode describes the slowing of outflow speed as a “tentative positive signal,” but emphasizes that on a monthly basis the market remains in net bleeding. Institutional demand has not truly stabilized.

Trading volume remains far below bull market peaks. Daily average ETF trading volume stays between $650 million and $950 million. This level is comparable to Q4 2024, but it is down by about 80% from the $4.4 billion/day peak recorded in October 2025. The persistent weakness in trading volume indicates that ETF investors’ participation confidence has not substantially recovered.

From logical inference, the narrowing of ETF net outflows is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition. To achieve a true recovery in institutional demand, two signals must be satisfied at the same time: sustained expansion in daily trading volume and net flows returning to a neutral or positive range. Neither of these signals has appeared yet.

Derivatives Market: Long Positioning and Defensive Hedging Coexist

The derivatives market sends relatively complex signals, which can be summarized as “directionally bullish, but defensively still present.”

The put/call ratio falls to the 2026 low. The put/call ratio for options open interest has dropped to 0.56, the lowest level since 2026. This means the market holds about 2 call options for every 1 put option, and directional bearish demand is fading. Perpetual contract funding rates continue to trade below the exchange neutral line of 0.01% and are far below levels that indicate crowded longs. This suggests that the derivatives market has, to some extent, de-risked and is cautiously tilting toward longs.

But options skew still prices in downside risk. Unlike the positioning-direction signal, the 25-Delta skew in the options market (the put protection premium relative to calls) is in a bid state across all tenors. In late June, the front-end skew briefly surged to 24%, the most defensive level since the February sell-off. Traders are still paying hedging costs for every decline, even though overall positioning has tilted toward longs.

Spot price remains below max pain. Bitcoin’s current trading price is about 6% below the options market’s aggregated max pain point (around $66,000). Max pain is the price level at which the greatest number of options positions expire worthless at maturity, and market prices often gravitate toward that level before expiration. The current discount is in the middle of the historical range since 2026; it has neither reached the deep stress level seen during the February sell-off nor shown any clear upward repair signal.

Volatility is near the low of the past 12 months. Bitcoin’s DVOL volatility index is close to its 12-month low. This is a low-volatility regime where cautious sentiment dominates but is gradually fading. From the options volatility smile curve, the 1-month put wing has been repriced lower throughout the rebound, and the implied volatility of 5% out-of-the-money put options has fallen significantly. The market is still pricing downside risk, but the absolute cost has meaningfully decreased.

Conclusion

Combining data across three layers—on-chain, off-chain, and derivatives—the current Bitcoin market presents a typical picture of the “late stage of a bear market.”

On-chain, the five-month deep value zone trading and the long-term holders’ realized losses of $280 million per day confirm that supply redistribution is underway. But Glassnode clearly states that cooling of this capitulation indicator is a prerequisite for a credible regime shift.

Off-chain, ETF net outflows have narrowed from the June peak, but net bleeding persists on a monthly basis; daily trading volume is down by about 80% from the October 2025 peak, and institutional conviction has not returned.

In the derivatives market, the put/call ratio falling to a 2026 low indicates weakening bearish demand, but skew and the volatility surface still price meaningful downside risk.

Overall assessment: The basic conditions for a Bitcoin bottom are being formed, but confirmation signals have not appeared yet. The market needs to see further cooling of long-term holder capitulation pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and sustained recovery of the price toward the True Market Mean. Until then, Bitcoin remains in a “bottoming process,” rather than a “confirmed bottom” state.

For market participants, the key at this stage is not to determine whether the market has already hit the bottom, but to identify which signals will form the evidence chain for bottom confirmation. The indicators across the three dimensions mentioned above—compression of long-term holder losses, ETF net flows returning to neutral, and the price moving back above the True Market Mean—will be the most important variables to track in the coming weeks to months.

FAQ

Q1: What price level is Bitcoin currently at?

As of July 10, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at $63,985.3, up 2.48% over the past 24 hours, and up 2.46% over the past 30 days. The price has rebounded from the June low of around $57,800, but it remains far below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200.

Q2: What is the “deep value zone”?

Glassnode defines the state where the price is below both the True Market Mean ($76,600) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($72,200) as the “deep value zone.” Bitcoin has been operating in this range for about five months, making it one of the longer deep value cycles in history.

Q3: Why are long-term holders selling in large amounts?

The proportion of realized losses for long-term holders (coins held over 155 days) has risen from 15% in February to 43%, with average daily losses of about $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. Most of these investors bought near the cycle top, and the continued decline over months is forcing them to exit with losses.

Q4: Where are Bitcoin ETF fund flows heading?

The 30-day moving average net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has narrowed from the early June peak of $193 million/day to $88.9 million/day. However, there are still net outflows on a monthly basis. Daily trading volume of $650 million to $950 million is down about 80% compared with the October 2025 peak.

Q5: What signals are needed for bottom confirmation?

Glassnode points out that bottom confirmation requires the simultaneous emergence of three core signals: further cooling of long-term holder capitulation pressure, stabilization of ETF fund flows (net flows returning to neutral), and Bitcoin’s price sustaining a move back above the True Market Mean ($76,600). Currently, none of these three conditions has been fully met.