$ETH #ETHAnalysis

ETH $1,738.24: Down 2.20% daily, double top at $1,812.60 confirmed? Reclaim $1,746 or break $1,725?
Quick Overview
ETH is now at $1,738.24, down 2.20% today. 24-hour range: $1,725.29 to $1,812.60. Volume reached 141,470 ETH / $250.3 million. After touching $1,812.60, ETH fell 4.8% to $1,725.29. Short-term trend has turned bearish, but the daily is still trying to maintain the larger uptrend.
Chart Shows: 4H Death Cross vs Daily Bullish Hope
1. 4H structure breakdown: MA5 $1,738.89, MA10 $1,738.20, MA30 $1,745.99. Price is below MA30. A 4H death cross has formed — MA7 crossed below MA30. This is bearish momentum. Lower highs from $1,812.60 → $1,768.94 → $1,742.75 are confirmed. 2. Oversold bounce setup: 4H CCI and WR are in low territory. This signals short-term oversold. Combined with daily MACD bottom divergence, a quick bounce may come. But bounces in a downtrend are selling opportunities until structure reverses. 3. Daily still in uptrend but weak: Daily maintains PDI > MDI, so the main trend is still up. However, MACD shows bottom divergence — price made a new low at $1,725.29, but MACD did not. This is a bullish signal. The issue: K-line built a double top around $1,812.60 on July 6-8. The neckline is $1,725.29. 4. Volume confirms panic: Volume surged as price fell. $250.3 million in volume poured into red candles. This is "volume up, price down" — sellers are absorbing buy orders. No bottom-fishing yet. Until volume declines on red candles or rises on green candles, bears are in control.
Key Levels
The level to reclaim is $1,745.99 (15-min MA30). Above that, $1,768.94, then $1,795.13 and the $1,812.60 double top.
If bulls win: 15-min close above $1,746 with rising volume opens $1,768 → $1,795 → $1,812. A break above $1,812.60 invalidates the double top. Next targets are $1,821.33, then above $1,849.
If bears strike: A break below $1,738, next target is the 24-hour low of $1,725.29. Below that, the double top is confirmed. The measured target points to $1,638 — a 5.7% drop from current price. Next support is $1,716.55, then $1,680.
MACD Details
15-min MACD is 0.76, with DIF -4.80 above DEA -5.56. The line just crossed up from a deep low. This supports the view of a 4H oversold bounce. But the 4H MACD is still declining. The 4H has not reversed yet.
Trading Plan
Aggressive: Short the failed bounce at MA30 $1,745.99. Stop above $1,750. Target $1,725, then $1,716. For longs, wait for a 15-min close above $1,746 with volume. Stop below $1,738. Target $1,768.
Conservative: Wait for $1,725 to hold and a 15-min reclaim of $1,746. Or wait for $1,725 to break, then short the retest of $1,730. The next solid buy zone is $1,716 to $1,680.
Risk‑averse: Below MA30 $1,745.99, the trend is down. Stay short until the 4H reclaims MA7 > MA30.
Core Conclusion: ETH formed a double top at $1,812.60 and broke down. The 4H death cross and rising volume on red candles show panic. But CCI/WR oversold + daily MACD bottom divergence could trigger a bounce. $1,745.99 is the level to reclaim. Take it, and $1,768 opens. Fail, and $1,725 will be broken, confirming a double top targeting $1,638.
Did you catch the $1,812 top, or are you waiting for a break of $1,725? What are your levels? Leave a comment below.
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