How should the market respond under the impact of news headlines?

Today's Hot Topics

1. Sharp Escalation of US-Iran Military Conflict

The US launched military strikes against Iran for the second consecutive day, targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites. Iran retaliated by using 10 ballistic missiles to destroy a US command center and airbase, and also struck US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other countries. Iran has threatened to expand the scope of its strikes, putting the Strait of Hormuz at risk, causing a sudden surge in global geopolitical risks.

2. State Council Issues the "15th Five-Year Plan" Carbon Peak Action Plan

The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan" Carbon Peak Action Plan, which clearly states that by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% compared to 2025, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, the proportion of new energy vehicles in total vehicle ownership will reach 30%, and the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach 300 million kilowatts.

3. Tech Sector and Safe-Haven Assets Move in Tandem

Global markets show clear divergence: chip stocks are strong, with the Nasdaq posting two consecutive gains; volatility in safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil has intensified; in Asian markets, the STAR 50 Index recorded a significant single-day gain, with the semiconductor supply chain attracting capital attention.

Chan Theory Perspective: Market Structure Evolution Under Geopolitical Impact

Geopolitical conflicts are essentially an injection of external energy.

From a Chan Theory perspective, this external shock does not create a new trend type, but rather changes the strength and rhythm of the original trend. It's like a stone thrown into a calm pond — ripples spread, but the nature of the water remains unchanged.

1. Trends Are Ultimately Perfect: External Shocks Don't Change the Fundamental Structure

When major geopolitical events occur, markets often experience sharp volatility: rapid rises or falls, followed by quick contractions. This "spike" in price action is essentially a sub-level departure segment.

The core of Chan Theory tells us: Trends are ultimately perfect. Any sharp volatility caused by external forces must eventually return to the original structural consolidation for absorption. In other words, geopolitical conflicts only change the rhythm of the market, not the direction of the trend.

2. Level Thinking: Distinguish Between Shock and Structure

Many people rush to enter the market when geopolitical events happen, thinking "buy gold in troubled times" or "energy is about to skyrocket." But from a Chan Theory perspective, the key is: which level's trend does this event shock affect?

• If the shock destroys the daily-level consolidation structure — that is a true trend reversal signal, requiring high attention
• If it is only a minute-level sharp fluctuation — for medium-to-long-term holders, it is just noise, no overreaction needed

Geopolitical events often trigger price action characterized by rapid breakout at small levels, while maintaining structure at large levels. Once the small level completes, the market will return to its original structural framework.

3. Complete Classification: Three Possible Trend Evolutions

Facing the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, complete classification thinking is particularly important:

First: A pullback within an existing uptrend → the consolidation center shifts upward, the pullback does not break the previous center, continuing the original trend → corresponding action: hold, observe sub-level buy points

Second: The end of the original trend → the departure segment's momentum weakens, forming a new center → corresponding action: reduce positions, wait for new buy/sell point signals

Third: Repeated small-level oscillations → the geopolitical event continues to ferment, with long and short repeatedly seesawing → corresponding action: wait and see, wait for level upgrade to become clear

Market Structure Insights

Geopolitics is one of the eternal "noises" in the market. Using Chan Theory to face it, the key lies in three sentences:

1. Do not predict the direction of the shock — only respond with complete classification
2. Distinguish the level of the shock — small-level noise does not interfere with large-structure judgment
3. Wait for structural confirmation — whether large and small levels resonate, whether three types of buy/sell points appear

The market is always in flux, and news is always changing. What is truly stable is your grasp of the structure.