If you were to do a blind dollar-cost averaging, would you choose Bitcoin or Ethereum?

I would firmly choose Bitcoin over Ethereum. There's a saying in the crypto space: only BTC qualifies as a core asset; all other tokens are essentially altcoins.

Bitcoin has the backing of top-tier strong players, and after more than a decade of accumulation, it has formed an unshakable market consensus. Most holders hold for multi-year cycles and do not sell arbitrarily due to short-term fluctuations. Coupled with its fixed total supply of 21 million coins and continuous institutional deployment, Bitcoin can survive bull and bear cycles, with long-term value preservation unmatched in the crypto market. In contrast, Ethereum is, after all, just a smart contract public chain.

During the 20‑22 bull market, the capital behind it carefully laid out a large number of DEFI ecosystem tokens on the Ethereum chain, creating an illusion of prosperity through ecosystem hype, driving up ETH's market cap, and using market heat to complete a flywheel distribution of chips. The double tops on the K-line charts during 20‑22 and 2023‑2025 are traces left by institutions' two rounds of distribution. This manipulation playbook has long been common among various altcoins. Now, the main capital has withdrawn 80%, making it difficult for large funds to support Ethereum going forward.

The heat generated by capital speculation will eventually fade. Without long-term stable consensus support, relying solely on the public chain narrative will struggle to sustain capital inflows. According to this trend, in the next cycle of 2027‑2029, Ethereum is likely to decline overall. For ordinary people doing dollar-cost averaging in digital currencies, don't be fooled by short-term hotspots; sticking with Bitcoin is the relatively safe choice.