North Carolina in the United States will impose a 6% tax on prediction markets, acknowledging federal jurisdiction

Jinse Finance reports that on July 10, according to Bitcoin.com, the budget signed in North Carolina takes a distinctly different regulatory path for prediction markets and sports betting. Effective January 1, 2027, the state imposes a 6% tax on net transaction fee income from prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, but explicitly does not require them to obtain a state license, effectively recognizing the CFTC's federal regulatory authority; during the same period, the sports betting tax rate is increased from 18% to 23%. The state becomes the first to acknowledge the legality of CFTC-registered prediction markets while refusing to impose state-level licensing requirements.

In contrast, Kentucky (14.25% consumption tax) and Illinois (incorporated into the sports betting regulatory framework) chose to confront the platforms and face lawsuits. Currently, federal courts are divided on the issue — Kalshi has won in New Jersey and Tennessee but lost in Maryland, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, and the Southern District of New York. The CFTC has sued at least nine states to defend its jurisdiction over event contracts, and the market widely expects the dispute to ultimately reach the Supreme Court.