#世界杯冠军预测 Why are there so many "stoppage-time winners" at the 2026 World Cup?

Argentina beat Egypt 3-2 with a stoppage-time goal. Whether the referee favored Argentina sparked huge controversy, with "Argentina dirty" even trending. Setting aside those controversies, another "stoppage-time winner" makes many people feel this might indeed be a major feature of this World Cup.

Of course, before asking "why," we must first confirm "whether it is true."

Guancha.cn has found that there were multiple stoppage-time goals in the group stage.

Turkey 3-2 United States, goal in the 8th minute of stoppage time for the winner. Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast, goal in the 4th minute of stoppage time.

Ghana 1-0 Panama, goal in the 5th minute of stoppage time.

Qatar 1-1 Switzerland, in the 4th minute of stoppage time, Switzerland's Muhaim scored an own goal.

Austria vs Algeria, goal in the 6th minute of stoppage time for a stoppage-time equalizer.

Also, Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador, goal scored in the 90th minute.

Japan 2-2 drew with Netherlands, goal scored in the 89th minute.

Senegal 2-3 lost to Norway, pulled one back in the 3rd minute of stoppage time. If these three cases are not counted, only strictly stoppage-time goals that changed the result are considered, then in 72 group stage matches there were 5 such cases, accounting for 6.9%.

In the 2022 World Cup, which was smaller with only 48 group stage matches, Guancha.cn found 3 similar cases, accounting for 6.2%: Iran 2-0 Wales, with very long stoppage time, Iran scored two goals in the 8th and 10th minutes. Brazil 0-1 lost to Cameroon in a shock, conceding in the 2nd minute of full-time stoppage time. The last match was also a shock for a strong team, Portugal conceded in the 1st minute of stoppage time and lost 1-2 to South Korea. Assuming 5 minutes of stoppage time in each half, considering that goals in first-half stoppage time are not counted as winners, the period when a winner could occur is the 5 minutes of second-half stoppage time, which is 5% of 100 minutes.

From this perspective, the proportion of winners in the group stage is not exaggerated, just slightly higher. But in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup, the situation changed dramatically.

Canada beat South Africa 1-0 in the 90+2 minute. Morocco drew 1-1 with Netherlands in the 90+1 minute and eventually eliminated them. Portugal scored in the 90+4 minute to beat Croatia 2-1. Belgium once trailed Senegal by two goals, then scored two goals in the 86th and 89th minutes. In the 117th minute of extra time, an opponent committed a foul, which after VAR review was awarded a penalty, and in the 5th minute of stoppage time, Tielemans converted. Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in the 90+6 minute. Spain eliminated Portugal 1-0 in the 1st minute of stoppage time. Finally, Argentina came back to beat Egypt 3-1, with the last goal scored in the 3rd minute of stoppage time.

Similarly, using strict criteria, we exclude Norway's elimination of Ivory Coast and England's elimination of DR Congo – both Europe-Africa matches, both 2-1, both goals in the 86th minute... also exclude Neymar's penalty in the 90+10 minute when Brazil lost to Norway, as it did not change the result. Counting this way, in the first two rounds of 24 knockout matches, there were 7 winners or last-gasp equalizers, which alone exceeds the number in the group stage, and the proportion reached a staggering 29.2%.

What about 2022? The group stage advanced to the round of 16, so the knockout stage, including the third-place match, had only 16 matches. The only stoppage-time "winner" or "equalizer" was the Netherlands vs Argentina quarterfinal. The Netherlands drew 2-2 with Argentina in the 10th minute of stoppage time, forcing extra time. Although they eventually lost on penalties, it still counts as a qualified stoppage-time "equalizer." The proportion in 2022 knockout stage (1/16) was roughly equal to that in the group stage (3/48). From this perspective, the stoppage-time "winners" and "equalizers" in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage are indeed quite peculiar.

It should be said that the increase in "winners" does have objective reasons. Teams entering the knockout stage are more evenly matched in strength than before, and they have strong willingness and ability to fight to the last minute to decide the outcome. For example, Morocco, which beat the Netherlands this time, reached the semifinals in 2022 and became the first African team to reach the World Cup semifinals. Their current ranking is high at 6th, while the Netherlands is only 9th. Egypt's performance against Argentina was seen by the world, and their current ranking is 24th. The other two African teams – Ivory Coast and DR Congo – who conceded goals in the 86th minute leaving little time, are also strong. When technical levels are close, both sides' physical exhaustion will be greater, and the gap in this aspect is more likely to explode in the final moments.

In 2020, the International Football Association Board (IFAB) increased the number of substitutions per match from 3 to 5. But initially, how to use these extra substitutions effectively, especially to strengthen attacks and take risks, might not have been well adapted by teams. By this edition, perhaps they have used the experience accumulated over the years, allowing more substitute players to charge at the opponent's defense. Belgium's Lukaku, Brazil's Martinelli, and Portugal's Ramos all came off the bench to score key goals. This also reflects the advantage of strong teams' bench depth – although strength is close, their foundations are thicker and they have more options.

Among the stoppage-time "winners" and "equalizers" in this edition, only Turkey vs United States (currently ranked 27 vs 16), Ghana vs Panama (currently ranked 65 vs 44) were upsets by weaker teams, and Qatar vs Switzerland was a draw by a weaker team (currently ranked 59 vs 14), all in the group stage. In the knockout stage, strong teams also have to fight to the end, so the bench gap will be more fully demonstrated. In addition, the precise stoppage time policy has been implemented since the 2022 World Cup, and four years later it is certainly more refined, with longer stoppage time (7+ minutes) being more "daringly" given. This relatively minor change might explain why the proportion of stoppage-time "winners" in the group stage increased from 6.2% in 2022 to 6.9% this year. But the 29.2% proportion in the knockout stage is still very rare.

The well-known sports data platform Opta once released data for the 2025-2026 Premier League season. In this world-class high-intensity league, 14.3% of matches were decided by "winners" after the 90th minute, more than double the rate of other seasons (previously the highest was 7.1%). It can be seen that there is indeed a trend of increasing "winners" in football, but the current proportion of "winners" in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage is "more than double" that of the 2025-2026 Premier League. Even if the remaining 8 matches have no "winners" or "last-gasp equalizers," the proportion would still be as high as 21.9%, which is 50% higher than the Premier League.

Perhaps this is the charm of this World Cup's knockout stage – it's all about the thrill. Can you find another explanation?