The Bitcoin bottoming process is progressing, but the bull market is still far away.

Conditions for reaching the Bitcoin price floor exist, but have not yet been confirmed.
Long-term holder losses have reached $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022.
Historically, July tends to favor buyers, but the CryptoQuant Bull Score stands at 20.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced notable volatility over the past few months, but on-chain data indicates that the conditions for reaching its lowest levels are in place. However, confirmation signals that would indicate a full recovery have not yet appeared.

Glassnode says the decline may have entered its final stages, yet several metrics must align before a sustained turnaround can be confirmed.

Bitcoin Bottoming Process Advances
In its latest report, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin continues to exhibit characteristics of a late-stage bear market across multiple on-chain indicators.

The firm noted that Bitcoin’s price has remained below the realized market price average and the short-term holder cost basis since early February 2026. Glassnode estimated these levels at $76,600 and $72,200, respectively. This five-month decline is among the longest in Bitcoin’s history.

The firm said: "Sustained accumulation at such a discount, where new capital is consistently deployed below the cost basis of both new buyers and the broader active market, has historically formed the foundation for cyclical bottoms and represents an attractive zone for value-oriented investors."

Key Bitcoin Cost Basis. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, long-term investors are leading the current sell-off. The proportion of total realized value attributable to long-term holder losses (30-day simple moving average) has risen to 43%, up from 15% in February.

Glassnode said that capitulation among this group recently peaked at nearly $280 million per day, the highest since December 2022, and has not yet subsided.

Institutional demand remains weak. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen to $88.9 million per day from the June peak, but flows remain negative.

At the same time, derivatives positions have been cautious. Although the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.56, the lowest since 2026, skew and volatility still reflect expectations of further downside risk.

Glassnode noted: "The market requires further easing of capitulation pressure, stabilization in institutional flows, and ideally a sustained recovery of the realized market average before the probability of a constructive regime shift can be weighted."

Why July Might Look Better
However, history offers some reassurance for bullish investors. Bitcoin’s price has closed higher in July for most of the past decade.

Bitcoin rose about 20% in July 2018 and 17% in July 2022, both bear market years, according to CryptoQuant.

Demand is also stabilizing. CryptoQuant data shows total demand recovering from a sharp decline near 650,000 BTC in early June, approaching the breakeven level. American buyers have also returned. The Coinbase Premium index rose to -0.062 as Bitcoin bounced from $57,000.

Nevertheless, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score stands at 20, well below the reading of 60 it says is required for a sustained rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $62,904. Fresh US strikes on Iran have pressured risk assets, erasing some of the gains from the $57,700 low.
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