US-Iran tensions repeatedly disrupt risk assets, and the crypto market’s short-term rebound is hindered

Although the U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary ceasefire consensus in June, the geopolitical premium eased in stages. Combined with the marginal cooling of expectations for further Fed rate hikes, market risk appetite briefly picked up. BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows for three consecutive days, helping digital assets begin a technical rebound. However, when July arrived, frictions between the two sides escalated again. On Wednesday, the mutual attack incident broke the brief calm, suppressing the optimism that had built up previously and forcing the market’s rebound process to be interrupted.

Judging from historical experience, conflicts of this kind are often tools of pressure before negotiation windows, with a relatively low probability of a substantive escalation. The current disruption is more like a “noise-like interlude.” If the situation later returns to a controllable track and the geopolitical risk-hedging pulse fades, market focus will re-anchor on the Fed’s policy path—concerns about rate hikes have gradually dulled, and the recovery logic driven by a resonance between liquidity and fundamentals still holds. Strategically, stay patient and wait for a secondary confirmation signal that sentiment has repaired. #Bitcoin
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