Is the market bottom in? Glassnode shows Bitcoin's bottoming process advancing, but confirmation signal not yet appearing

As of July 9, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at $62,950, up 1.6% in 24 hours. Since early February 2026, Bitcoin's price has been trading below the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis for five consecutive months, placing it in a deep value zone. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted in its latest weekly report that all the basic conditions for a market bottom are in place, but the core signal confirming a bottom has yet to emerge.

How long has the deep undervaluation lasted?

Bitcoin is currently well below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200. Since early February 2026, the price has remained below the active investor cost basis and the breakeven line for recent entrants, a stretch of nearly five months. This duration ranks among the longer deep-discount cycles in Bitcoin's history. Churning of hands within a prolonged discount zone, with new capital accumulating below previous buyers' cost basis, has historically been the foundation for a cyclical bottom. However, only a reclaim of the two key levels—the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis—can lift the market out of the deep undervaluation zone; otherwise, the market remains vulnerable to external bearish catalysts.

What signals are valuation metrics giving?

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is the core metric measuring the average unrealized profit/loss of all holders. As of Q2 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV rose to approximately 1.37, a mid-cycle range consistent with a recovery phase. Historically, MVRV above 3.5 typically signals significant selling, while below 1.0 marks an accumulation zone. The current reading of 1.37 indicates the market as a whole is near breakeven—neither in an extreme overvaluation zone nor at historically low valuation levels.

The short-term holder MVRV has recovered from 0.81 to 0.90 but remains below the breakeven threshold of 1.0. This means recent entrants as a group are still in unrealized loss, not yet fully back to profitability. Meanwhile, the 30-day simple moving average of the Realized P/L Ratio stands at 0.53, indicating that loss realization still dominates capital flows. Realized market cap has contracted by 1.45% over the past 90 days to $1.07 trillion, though the 7-day rate of change has largely stalled at -0.18%. Returning to a positive 90-day growth rate and reclaiming the True Market Mean are key conditions for establishing a "pre-bull transition phase."

How has long-term holder behavior shifted?

The net position change of long-term holders (coins held >155 days) has turned positive after a period of sustained net distribution. This metric tracks the 30-day net change in supply held by wallets with a holding time of at least 155 days. Current net accumulation by long-term holders is roughly between 50k and 100k BTC. While this figure is far from the peak of nearly 400k BTC seen during the bull markets of November 2024 and May 2025, the directional shift itself is significant—it marks the resumption of accumulation by experienced holders after months of sustained distribution.

Nevertheless, early accumulation by long-term holders has historically appeared weeks or even months before a bottom forms. In previous cycles, Glassnode has repeatedly observed such accumulation in the early stages of demand exhaustion, well before any confirmed reversal patterns emerged.

Why is long-term holder selling pressure the core issue?

The primary downside pressure on the market is the concentrated stop-loss selling by long-term holders who bought at high prices. After the price fell below the True Market Mean, the 30-day moving average ratio of loss realizations by long-term holders has climbed from 15% in early February 2026 to 43% currently. This stop-loss selling by holders facing unrealized losses has become the most dominant bearish force suppressing the price. Most of these investors entered near the cycle peak; after months of deep drawdown, their conviction has eroded, leading to concentrated exits.

The entity-adjusted long-term holder realized loss metric (30-day smoothed average) shows a single-day loss realization peak of $280 million, the highest since December 2022. This on-chain structure directly explains why every rebound has been met with concentrated selling by deeply underwater holders, preventing the price from consolidating above the current range. Long-term holder loss realization has become the market's primary downward pressure. The next key observation is whether this selling pressure begins to subside.

What does the SOPR indicator reveal about market sentiment?

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the ratio of the sale price of on-chain moving coins to their acquisition price—values above 1 indicate average profit realization, below 1 indicate average loss realization. In the current market, the 30-day average of SOPR has dropped to 0.99, consistently below the critical level of 1, indicating the market is in an average loss state. Between May and July, the indicator was below 1 for 37 out of 61 days.

A notable recent change is that the short-term holder SOPR (STH-SOPR) has turned positive. Profit-taking by short-term holders has pushed STH-SOPR positive, which some observers view in the technical analysis framework as a "textbook" bear market bottom sign. However, a brief positive single indicator is insufficient to form a complete bottom confirmation signal—typically, a bottom confirmation requires a combination of multiple signals: declining exchange inflows, a consistently positive funding rate after reset, and the shift of short-term holder behavior from distribution to accumulation.

What information does spot ETF flow convey?

The outflow magnitude of Bitcoin spot ETFs has moderated but remains in a monthly net outflow state. Daily average ETF trading volume is in the $650 million to $950 million range, about 80% below the peak at the height of the market in October 2025. Institutional buying demand has yet to stabilize. The continued net outflows in ETF flows indicate that while signs of accumulation are emerging at the retail and long-term holder levels, institutional capital allocation has not yet formed a clear directional shift.

What leading signals does the derivatives market provide?

Derivatives positioning has turned cautiously bullish. The put/call ratio has fallen to a year-to-date low. The put/call ratio for options open interest dropped to 0.56, a low for 2026. However, the options volatility surface still maintains a defensive premium, with spot prices significantly below the maximum pain price. Options skew still reflects demand for downside protection. This means that while market sentiment has improved from extreme pessimism, the pricing structure of the derivatives market has not fully confirmed a bottom—traders are still paying a premium for downside risk.

What conditions are still needed for a bottom confirmation?

The market has entered the late stage of bottoming. However, the core signal confirming a bottom has yet to appear. Based on comprehensive on-chain data, the following conditions remain unmet: First, there is no clear sign of attenuation in long-term holder stop-loss selling; second, spot ETF flows have not shifted from net outflows to stable net inflows; third, the price has not yet reclaimed the two critical levels—the True Market Mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200).

The current environment carries what analysts call a "value trap" risk—prices appear attractive relative to on-chain cost benchmarks, but there is no structural evidence that selling pressure has been fully cleared. The market could still decline even at deep value levels. In past cycles, sustained rebounds required both valuation support and synchronized changes in short-term holder behavior.

Summary

Glassnode's on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin market is in the late stage of bottoming. Valuation metrics (MVRV ~1.37) and long-term holder behavior (net position turning positive) indicate the market is in a deep value zone, and the bottoming process is progressing. However, obstacles to bottom confirmation include the persistent long-term holder stop-loss selling (43% of loss realizations, single-day peak of $280 million), continued net outflows from spot ETFs, and the price remaining below key cost bases. Bottom confirmation requires convergence of multiple signals—declining selling pressure, stabilizing capital flows, and the price reclaiming critical levels—rather than relying on improvement in a single indicator. The current data points to the conclusion: basic conditions are in place, but the confirmation signal has yet to appear.

FAQ

Q: Where does the MVRV indicator currently stand, and what does it mean?

As of Q2 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV is approximately 1.37, a mid-cycle range consistent with a recovery phase. This value suggests the market as a whole is near breakeven—neither extremely overvalued nor at historically low valuation levels.

Q: What does the long-term holder net position turning positive imply?

The long-term holder net position change has turned positive after sustained net distribution, indicating investors holding coins for over 155 days are re-accumulating. However, the current accumulation scale (50k–100k BTC) is far below the bull market peak (approximately 400k BTC).

Q: Why is it said that the bottom confirmation signal has not yet appeared?

Key reasons include: long-term holder stop-loss selling has not yet subsided (loss realization ratio at 43%), spot ETFs remain in monthly net outflows, and the price remains below the True Market Mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200).

Q: What does the SOPR indicator currently reflect?

The 30-day average of SOPR has been consistently below 1, indicating the market is in a state of average loss realization. The short-term holder SOPR has recently improved, but a single indicator improvement is insufficient for a complete bottom confirmation.

Q: How long does the late stage of bottoming typically last?

In historical cycles, deep discount zones and early accumulation by long-term holders can persist for weeks or even months before a clear reversal signal emerges. Bitcoin has been in a deep undervaluation zone for five consecutive months, but the exact timing of a bottom confirmation cannot be precisely inferred from current data.