The Fed minutes are out. On the surface, rates were held steady unanimously, but I think the most worth-reading part of these minutes is not the conclusion, but the wording.

Discussions about raising rates, yet ultimately staying put unanimously — what does this combination indicate?

It indicates that the consensus among this committee is fragile, not firm. It's not that there is no divergence; the divergence exists but is suppressed.

Next time, if inflation data jumps again, this fragile consensus could crack, and the direction of the crack is towards a rate hike, not a cut.

Here's an interesting detail: the minutes list AI investment as a new variable affecting economic judgment. The Fed is beginning to incorporate AI capital expenditure into its economic analysis framework — this in itself is quite new.

The logic is that AI investment drives corporate capital spending, supporting employment and demand. When inflation hasn't been fully suppressed, this actually adds reasons for tightening, not reduces them.

The Fed says AI is a variable. The subtext may be that part of this cycle's economic resilience comes from AI, and this resilience gives them even less reason to cut rates urgently.

The market now assigns a 34.7% probability to a 25bp rate hike in July. This number is subtle — neither high nor low — pricing in uncertainty itself. This position is actually harder to trade than a clearly dovish or clearly hawkish stance, because data in either direction could give the market a reason to reprice.

So after tonight, next week's CPI will be the real key. The minutes have already told you what is being discussed internally; the CPI will tell you which direction the discussion will converge.

DYOR Not investment advice.