July 9 Hawkish Fed Tone Lingers; Any Rebound Is an Opportunity

I. Macro: Don't Be Fooled by the "Pause"

Last night's Fed meeting minutes sent a clear signal — just because they didn't act this time doesn't mean they won't next time. Most officials have publicly stated: if inflation remains stubborn, rate hikes will be inevitable. The market interpreted this as a "temporary relief from bearish news," but we believe it is precisely the prelude to an escalation of bearish factors. U.S. stocks already showed weakness overnight, and the crypto market has no reason to strengthen independently amid this macro headwind.

II. Technicals: Low-Volume Rebound, Bearish Dominance Unchanged

BTC: On the 4-hour timeframe, the rebound has shown signs of fatigue near 62,000, with volume clearly shrinking — a typical weak recovery. The 63,000-63,500 range above is a dense accumulation zone of previous chips, with heavy selling pressure. If the rebound fails to break through this area, the logic for bears to push lower stands.

ETH: Even weaker, failing to effectively touch the 1,760 line. On the hourly chart, the MACD has formed a death cross below the zero line, with moving averages in a full bearish arrangement. The rebound space is limited, and shorting on rallies has a high probability of success.

III. Trading Reference

🔸 BTC Direction: Short
Entry Range: 62,800 - 63,300
Stop Loss: 63,600
Targets: 61,700 → 60,500

🔸 ETH Direction: Short
Entry Range: 1,760 - 1,770
Stop Loss: 1,800
Targets: 1,730 → 1,670