Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Trend Analysis on July 9:

Market News: The international situation is truly changing rapidly. Just moments ago, there were peace talks in the US-Iran war situation, but after the US attacked three Iranian ports and three Iranian crude oil carriers in the early morning of the 8th, the US-Iran negotiations fell into a deadlock again. This led to a rapid rise in international crude oil prices within the past 24 hours. So what impact will the rise in oil prices have on the entire futures market going forward? Lao Jin has summarized his personal views on the current international trends and market expectations, hoping to provide you with some reference.

Technical Analysis: In previous content, we mentioned that the continued escalation of the US-Iran war this year has had a huge impact on international commodity market prices, especially the fluctuations in international prices including gold, US stocks, and crude oil. From Lao Jin's perspective, the attack on Iran in the early morning of the 8th looks more like a setup by the US to deliberately push up international crude oil prices. If peace talks succeed and control of the Strait of Hormuz is returned to Iran, oil prices will return to normal levels. Then all the actions the US has taken in the past six months—arresting the Venezuelan president and going to war with Iran—would be in vain. You know, the US is under huge debt pressure at home, with annual military spending of nearly $1.5 trillion, which is putting enormous pressure on the US. In the short term, the only way is to push up oil prices through exports to transfer domestic debt pressure. Therefore, for a long time to come, the US is very likely to adopt the same strategy of firing one shot, then waiting for the situation to ease before firing another shot to provoke war. By pushing up oil prices for exports, it can replenish itself. In summary, I think that for a long time to come, whether it is gold, silver, or the crypto market, there will still be a long cold winter. Therefore, the long-term overall direction of the crypto market is bullish, but it needs a long time to wait for market consolidation and main force involvement.

For short-term views, due to the impact of the war, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been rising since last week and are currently at high levels. The cycle box range is still at 60000-64500 points, and Ethereum at 1550-1850 points. On the 4-hour chart, the short-term upward trend is weakening. Pay attention to the resistance breakthrough at the lower levels of 61500 points and 1710 points. Combining the above trend summary, the expectation of a downward oscillation in the market is greater than the expectation of a continued upward trend. Lao Jin believes that the possibility of a short-term oscillating decline is relatively strong.

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