July 9 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

The FOMC meeting minutes for June 16-17 released yesterday overall showed a hawkish tilt:

Officials discussed scenarios where interest rates may need to be raised if inflation fails to fall back to the 2% target in a timely manner.

Inflation forecasts were revised upward (due to tariffs and AI-related tech/electricity price pressures), reinforcing a "higher for longer" or data-dependent cautious stance.

Economic activity is solid, the labor market is resilient, but geopolitical uncertainties such as the Middle East are still mentioned.

Market reaction: BTC saw a moderate pullback or came under pressure, but no sharp crash occurred, as the hold itself was within expectations. Risk assets overall were cautious, with the dollar/yields strengthening slightly.

Next catalyst: The CPI on July 14 (June data) will directly influence expectations for the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Currently, the market's probability of a near-term rate cut remains low; hawkish signals delay easing expectations, posing a phased resistance for BTC.

🤯 Capital Flows:

On July 2, there was a notable inflow due to weak employment data, breaking the previous consecutive days of outflows, but overall institutional funds remain cautious.

On-chain data: Long-term holders (LTH) have not shown panic selling, with some signs of accumulation. Exchange net outflows or stable holdings support discussions of a bottom signal.

Derivatives: Funding rates are mostly neutral or at low levels amid the oscillation, with no obvious excessive leverage.

Summary: Capital flows are under short-term pressure (dominated by net outflows), but the recovery of inflows and on-chain resilience provide support. If subsequent ETF net inflows continue, it will become a catalyst for a rebound.

🤯 Technical Analysis:

① Over the past few days, we have been warning that the risk is at 64300; if it doesn't break through, it will go down. Now it has dropped over 1,000 points, indicating our judgment was extremely accurate and sharp.

② For this wave, the next focus is whether the 60900 level can hold. If it holds, it will form a "mid-air refueling" of the daily MACD and touch the 63500-64300 range again. If it breaks below 60000, it will not hold.

③ Intraday still mainly oscillates downward, with support at 60900-59500 and resistance at 62700-63500.