July 9 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯Fundamentals:

The FOMC meeting minutes for June 16-17 released yesterday showed a hawkish tilt overall:

Officials discussed scenarios where rate hikes might be needed if inflation fails to return to the 2% target in a timely manner

Inflation forecasts were revised upward (under pressure from tariffs and AI-related tech/electricity prices), reinforcing a "higher for longer" or data-dependent cautious stance

Economic activity is solid, labor market resilient, but geopolitical uncertainties such as the Middle East were still mentioned

Market reaction: BTC saw a moderate pullback or came under pressure, but no sharp crash, as the steady stance was within expectations. Risk assets were generally cautious, with the USD/yields strengthening slightly

Next catalyst: The July 14 CPI (June data) will directly influence expectations for the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29. Currently, the market still sees a low probability of a near-term rate cut, and the hawkish signals delay easing expectations, posing a phased resistance to BTC

🤯Capital Flows:

On July 2, there was a notable inflow due to weak employment data, breaking the previous days of outflows, but overall institutional funds remain cautious

On-chain data: Long-term holders (LTH) have not shown panic selling, with some signs of accumulation. Net exchange outflows or stable holdings support the discussion of a bottom signal

Derivatives: Funding rates are mostly neutral or at low levels during the oscillation, with no significant excessive leverage

Summary: Capital flows are under short-term pressure (dominated by net outflows), but the recovery of inflows + on-chain resilience provide support. If ETF inflows continue to be net positive, it will become a catalyst for a rebound

🤯Technical Analysis:

① Over the past few days, we have been warning of the risk at 64,300; if it does not break through, it will go down. Now it has already dropped by over 1,000 points, showing that our judgment was extremely accurate and sharp

② For this wave of movement, the next focus is whether the 60,900 level can hold. If it can hold, it will form a daily MACD "air refueling" (bullish crossover), and test the 63,500-64,300 range again. If it breaks below 60,000, it will not be able to hold

③ Intraday, it is still mainly oscillating downward, with support at 60,900-59,500 and resistance at 62,700-63,500