7.9 Range View

Entering the second week of July, the market completed a full downward cycle. In the early hours of Tuesday, the price surged to 647 before bulls completely exhausted. On Wednesday, it continued to rebound to 642, then went into a unilateral decline to a low of 615, fully reaching the bottom area of the decline repair predicted earlier. It was pointed out earlier that this entire oversold rally is only a short-term repair within the downtrend. Currently, various fundamental and core market conditions have not changed. There is no need to be misled by short-term temporary upward moves.

The 620 level has been repeatedly tested as resistance, and the upward pressure remains strong. Even if the market occasionally sees small rebounds, the upward space is very limited, making it difficult to sustain a bullish trend. After the price hit the heavy resistance at 626, bulls lacked follow-through, making it easy to reverse and fall back. The current small fluctuation rebound is only a brief consolidation after a sharp drop, and cannot change the overall bearish pattern.

Long-term overall strategy is firmly bearish. In practice, focus on two key points:
1. Any future rebound in the market should be seen as an opportunity to enter short positions. The bearish main trend firmly dominates, and the rebound highs are the best points to arrange short orders. Place batch swing shorts in the 626-631 range, with a long-term target of 555.
2. Firmly hold the key support level at 613. Once this level is effectively broken, the downward channel will be fully opened, and the swing trend will continue with a deep decline.

Externally, the Fed's tightening stance remains unchanged, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, bearish conditions for the market continue to accumulate. The short-term bullish rebound triggered by yesterday's oversold conditions is now being gradually consumed. This brief recovery is only a transitional phase, and the market will sooner or later return to its original downward rhythm.

Currently, do not blindly buy the bottom. The overall operation strategy is to rely on rebounds to place short orders in batches, reasonably control positions, prioritize risk management, and patiently wait for the subsequent decline to play out. $BTC $ETH #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束