The Fed says, “We are united,” but when you turn to page X of the minutes, it says, “Some people want to raise rates”

—Which one do you believe?

At 2:00 a.m. on July 9, the Fed told the whole world:

“All participants unanimously supported keeping interest rates unchanged.”

United in one spirit, determined like a solid force, with peaceful days ahead.

But if you really believe it, then you’re the greenest leek of all.

Flip open these freshly released meeting minutes—on which page does it say: “A few participants believed there were reasons to raise rates at the June meeting.”

Didn’t they say “all agreed”?

What kind of unity is this?

What did the Fed chair, Wosh, say himself? He called this debate a “family quarrel.” After the quarrel came the vote— and the measure passed unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged.

All smiles on the surface, but swords and spears underneath.

So the question is—why is the Fed putting on this show?

The answer is simple: expectation management.

The Fed’s mouth is unified, but their minds are split. They don’t dare let the market see the split. Because once the market knows “someone wants to raise rates,” bond yields will skyrocket, the stock market will crash, and the crypto market will come cascading down like a waterfall.

So they bury all their differences on page X of the minutes, and cover it up with the line “unanimous.”

But under the lid, the sparks have been burning all along.

The minutes are written very clearly: participants generally believed that the upside risks to price stability remain high, while the downside risks to achieving full employment have eased.

Translation: Inflation is the boss; employment is no longer a concern.

When inflation risks are on the rise and employment risks are on the decline—where does that seesaw tilt? Can you not tell?

In effect, the Fed is saying: We’re just one data point away from raising rates.

What about AI?

This time, for the first time, the minutes wrote the AI investment boom into the inflation discussion.

What are officials worried about? AI infrastructure construction is too aggressive—driving up prices of tech products, driving up electricity prices, and driving up demand for related equipment—all of which is inflationary.

If even AI can become a reason to raise rates, just think how anxious the Fed is about inflation.

Don’t listen to what they say about being “data-driven.” “Data-driven” is a cover; inflation anxiety is the truth.

After the minutes were released, Bitcoin fluctuated around $62,000.

Across the whole network, $333 million was liquidated within 24 hours, and more than 110,000 people were wiped out.

This isn’t the end.

What the market fears most isn’t rate hikes—it’s “uncertainty.”

These minutes give you one certainty—no hike this month. But at the same time, they plant an even bigger uncertainty—that a hike may come in the future.

CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in July is 31%, and the cumulative probability of rate hikes by September is already approaching 70%.

BTC will keep oscillating in the face of this “Schrödinger’s rate hike.” Until August’s CPI provides a clear direction, every rebound is just bait to lure you in.

The Fed’s mouth is unified, but its mind is split. Don’t listen to what they say—watch which paragraph they put the word “risk” in.

Inflation risk is written on the first page, and employment risk is written on the last page—that’s the whole answer.#GUSD年化升至3.8% #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免 #SK海力士ADR获超额认购 $BTC $ETH $SOL