BTC/ETH Early Session Forecast | 2026.07.09 07:50

Yesterday’s Review: Yesterday, BTC’s key watershed level was 63,200~63,400. The actual 24-hour range was approximately 61,473~63,706. After falling below the watershed level during the session, BTC continued to probe lower. Although it did not directly spiral out of control, the support around 62,600 was also broken, indicating that the “breakdown first, then look for a pullback” direction was partially realized. Defensive strength was weaker than expected, and today’s observation range needs to be revised downward. Yesterday, ETH’s key watershed level was 1,770~1,780. The actual 24-hour range was approximately 1,711~1,784. After briefly touching above the watershed level, ETH fell back again. After breaking below 1,760, altcoins’ upside elasticity was clearly pressured, and the conclusion played out. Yesterday’s altcoin posture was more defensive than expected, which matched expectations; the strong rebound did not spread into a full-blown market move.

Today’s Overall Judgment: BTC and ETH are currently in a state of support confirmation after weak consolidation, not a trend reversal. BTC is currently around 62,247, with a 24-hour change of approximately -1.69%. ETH is currently around 1,741, with a 24-hour change of approximately -1.60%. BTC’s daily chart is still above MA20, but below MA50. After the 1-hour MACD green bars converged, it only showed a weak correction/rebound. ETH’s daily chart is also holding above MA20, but it is suppressed by MA50 and the 4-hour moving average. Altcoins are generally defensive today. Only if BTC holds the low end and ETH reclaims the pressure level should a localized recovery be considered.

BTC: Current price is approximately 62,247. The 24-hour range is approximately 61,473~63,706, and volume is below the average volume over the past 20 days. On the 1-hour chart, the price is near MA20 around 62,175, but still below MA50 around 62,932. The Bollinger range is about 61,570~62,779. The MACD green bars are converging, indicating that downside momentum is slowing but rebound strength is insufficient. On the 4-hour chart, the price is below MA20 around 63,028 and close to the lower Bollinger band around 61,782, with heavy moving-average resistance above. On the daily chart, it is standing above MA20 around 61,831, but below MA50 around 65,922; the weekly and monthly lines are still relatively weak in recovery. Near-term support is 62,000~62,200, and strong support is 61,450~61,800. Near-term resistance is 62,750~63,000, and strong resistance is 63,600~63,800. BTC’s key watershed level today is 62,200~62,400: if it holds, weak recovery can continue; if it breaks through, it will keep looking at around 61,500 for acceptance.

ETH: Current price is approximately 1,741. The 24-hour range is approximately 1,711~1,784. Volume is slightly higher than the average volume over the past 20 days, suggesting there was capital turnover during the pullback. On the 1-hour chart, the price is near MA20 around 1,739 but below MA50 around 1,763. The Bollinger range is about 1,722~1,756. The MACD green bars are converging, indicating a short-term dip-stabilization and recovery. On the 4-hour chart, the price is below MA20 around 1,769 and close to the lower Bollinger band around 1,728. Above, 1,755~1,780 is still the first pressure zone. On the daily chart, it is above MA20 around 1,678 but below MA50 around 1,787. The weekly chart remains below the intermediate moving average. Near-term support is 1,720~1,735, and strong support is 1,680~1,710. Near-term resistance is 1,755~1,770, and strong resistance is 1,780~1,810. ETH’s key watershed level today is 1,735~1,750. Only after it is reclaimed and holds steady can the recovery continue; if it drops back below 1,720, altcoins will keep cooling.

Today’s Altcoin Cross-Asset Linkage Judgment: Altcoins are defensive today. If BTC holds 62,200~62,400 and then reclaims above 63,000, and ETH simultaneously reclaims 1,750~1,770, then altcoins could have room for a short-term rebound. If BTC breaks below 62,000, or if ETH loses 1,720, altcoins are likely to follow the mainstream coin move with reduced volume and continue to pull back. ETH currently does not show clear strength over BTC; capital elasticity is insufficient. For weaker coins, it’s better to do less—only watch whether a small number of strong structures can independently resist the downside.

Public Version Trading Principles: Don’t chase highs today; first wait for BTC and ETH to provide confirmation near their respective watershed levels. If they break below the watershed levels, reduce positions defensively. If they stand back above near-term resistance, then consider whether the recovery can continue. Until key resistance is reclaimed at the same time, do not treat an altcoin rebound as a broad market trend. For the full list of observation-pool levels and single-coin strategies, refer to the subscription digest or group documents.

Risk Warning: The above content is only a market projection and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile—please manage your position sizes and stop-losses carefully.