Overnight Fed Meeting Key Takeaways

1. Interest rates held at 3.5%-3.75% unchanged, fourth consecutive pause

2. Inflation remains well above the 2% target, deep divisions among officials: half of officials predict further rate hikes this year, only a very few see rate cuts

3. Abandoned traditional forward guidance, downplayed dot plot reference, policy fully tied to inflation/nonfarm data, volatility expected to continue expanding

4. Overall characterization: hawkish pause, rate cut expectations directly delayed, market easing fantasies cooled

BTC/ETH Market Interpretation

• Bitcoin (BTC): Non-interest-bearing asset, high rates raise opportunity cost; spot ETFs provide long-term support, but short-term liquidity tightening suppresses rebounds, narrowing consolidation range, key support not broken → range trading as primary approach

• Ethereum (ETH): High beta, larger drops/volatility than BTC generally; DeFi borrowing costs rise, on-chain capital activity declines, tracking the broader market weakness, rebound strength weaker than Bitcoin

Short-term conclusion: Macro liquidity is tight, hard to see a unilateral big bull run, long and short squeezes become the norm, light positions to control volatility.