Thursday morning, July 9

On the major timeframe, the bearish trend remains solid, with no sign of wavering. This current rebound is, in my view, merely a "technical breather" after the prior oversold condition, not a reversal signal and certainly not worth chasing.

In the actual early session movement, prices did see a wave of recovery after touching short-term support, but the rebound strength is clearly weak. Hourly K-line bodies are shrinking, and volume has not effectively increased, indicating that bulls are only passively resisting rather than actively attacking. The overhead moving average system (e.g., MA30, MA60) is in a bearish arrangement, forming layers of resistance against prices. Therefore, every upward probe is likely to trigger new selling pressure.

My trading principle is clear: only wait for rebounds, never chase longs. This morning I will remain patient and closely watch key resistance areas. Only when prices rebound to that area and show obvious signs of stalling (such as long upper wicks, engulfing patterns, or MACD bearish divergence) will I enter to set up short positions. This approach aligns with the main trend, improves the risk-reward ratio, and avoids being whipsawed in the range.

Suggestion:
BTC: Short around 62600-63000
Target: 61000-61400
ETH: Short around 1760-1780
Target: 1690-1710
#btc$btc