Vance's statement is part of a larger picture showing how tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated in recent weeks, and this escalation has indeed progressed gradually throughout the week.

This latest act of the crisis began last week with Iran's attack on a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The US launched retaliatory strikes on Friday, with the Pentagon stating it was a "direct response to Iran's aggression against commercial shipping." At the time, Vance drew a clear line, stating that disagreements over the implementation of the agreement with Iran could be resolved by telephone, but that violence would be met with violence. Iran, through its Revolutionary Guard, announced that it would respond "more harshly" to ships sailing outside its approved routes.

Despite these warnings, the attacks did not stop. On Tuesday, two more ships were struck in the strait: the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayat and the Saudi Arabian supertanker Wedyan, with a fire in the engine room of the Al Rekayat creating a risk of explosion. Less than twenty-four hours later, the Revolutionary Guard attacked a third ship. The US responded by revoking the oil sales waivers granted to Iran through the Treasury Department and launching a much larger-scale retaliation through CENTCOM, striking over 80 targets – reportedly four or five times larger than those of the previous week. The Iranian military declared it would respond with an "overwhelming counter-attack," while chief negotiator Ali Bakiri accused the US of largely violating the agreement.

At the heart of this tension lies a technical but extremely important disagreement: the question of who will control the strait. The memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June stipulated that Iran and Oman, along with other Gulf countries, would hold talks on the future management and maritime services of the strait. However, some ships preferred to use an alternative route near the Omani coast and adjacent to the United Arab Emirates, instead of the route designated by Iran. Iran appears to be targeting ships using this route, as the locations of the three ships struck were found near the Omani or Emirati coasts, supporting this claim.

This table illustrates the delicate balance upon which the fragile ceasefire, formed just weeks ago, rests. The US side describes the agreement as "entirely performance-based," emphasizing that benefits could be withdrawn if Iran fails to maintain good behavior, while also stating that negotiators are continuing to work "in good faith" towards a final agreement. This dual rhetoric reflects an effort to both maintain military pressure and keep the diplomatic door open.

For those following oil and Middle East-related risk assets through the Gate, the key question is whether this cycle of reciprocal retaliation will remain controlled or evolve to the point of completely collapsing the June ceasefire. The jump in oil prices by over 5% this week already indicates that this risk is beginning to be priced in, and how ship traffic in the strait unfolds in the coming days will be the most concrete indicator clarifying whether this is a temporary escalation or a permanent breakdown.

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