The Iran oil-risk playbook may be starting again.

Here is the latest timeline:
- Trump says any Iran strike would cause only a “slight” oil price increase, around $2.
- A U.S. official says the military is ready to reimpose a blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports if ordered.
- An Israeli official says Israel is now on the highest possible alert level in case hostilities with Iran restart.
- An Iranian official says Iran still has unused options, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the nuclear treaty, and changing its nuclear doctrine.
- Trump says the U.S. will see if it can keep pushing oil prices lower, adding that oil should stay low.
This looks like the same playbook again:
Escalation headlines hit first.
Oil jumps.
Markets panic.
Risk assets sell off.
If tensions rise again, crypto, stocks and high-risk assets could drop first.
But if the market overreacts and oil risk fades again, that first panic move might become one of the better buying windows.