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#世界杯冠军预测 The 2026 World Cup has reached the quarterfinals, and the championship landscape is converging rapidly. According to the latest data, France is currently the biggest favorite to win, but Argentina and Spain are close behind, with England also having a chance to shake things up.
Key Facts
France won all three group stage matches (scored 10, conceded 2), topping Group I, and are in red-hot form
Argentina also won all three matches (scored 8, conceded 1), with Messi leading the scoring chart with 8 goals
Spain has yet to concede a goal, the only team without a goal against
Brazil and Portugal have been eliminated; only France, Argentina, Spain, and England remain among traditional powerhouses
Highlights & Analysis
France leads the title odds (about 34-37%) thanks to squad depth and Mbappé's peak form. Deschamps' system has been honed over years – from the 2018 title win to the 2022 final loss – giving this French team both big-match experience and a revenge motive. Mbappé is just 4 goals shy of Klose's all-time World Cup scoring record, providing immense personal motivation.
Argentina's confidence stems from Messi's final dance. At 39, he has already scored 8 goals this tournament, performing even better than during the 2022 title run. Scaloni has kept the championship core intact, and team chemistry is excellent. But the risk is clear: can Messi's stamina hold up to the final? If he is contained, Argentina's attacking fluidity will suffer greatly.
Spain is the most stable team in this tournament. Their possession-based system is mature, youngsters like Yamal have emerged, and their zero-goals-conceded record gives them a huge psychological advantage in the knockout stage. Their question: can they maintain possession dominance against high-intensity pressing?
England's group stage performance was uneven, but key players like Bellingham and Kane are hitting their stride. Guehi stated, "No one can stop us" – such confidence can be a double-edged sword in the knockout rounds: inspiring drive but also inviting pressure.
Public Opinion
In recent hours, discussion on X has heated up after the quarterfinal lineup was set, with France and Argentina as the two dominant viewpoints
Pro-France: Unmatched squad depth, Mbappé unstoppable, Deschamps' big-game experience – "Betting on France now is the safest"
Pro-Argentina: Messi's final tournament, championship core intact – "The defending script is already written"
For Spain: Possession + clean sheets, Yamal's emergence – "Understated but most solid"
Skeptical of England: Despite a star-studded squad, a long history of choking under pressure – "Don't get too optimistic too early"
My Assessment
France is the team with the strongest on-paper strength and highest championship probability, but the World Cup is never just about paper. If France and Argentina meet in the semifinals, that will be the de facto final deciding the title. Spain's stability makes them the biggest variable – if they can drag the game into their own rhythm, any opponent will struggle.
If I had to pick one: France has the highest title probability, but Argentina's "last dance" narrative is the strongest, Spain is the most solid, and England is the most unpredictable.
Key Facts
France won all three group stage matches (scored 10, conceded 2), advanced as Group I leaders, in red-hot form.
Argentina also won all three matches (scored 8, conceded 1), with Messi leading the scorers' chart with 8 goals.
Spain has kept clean sheets so far, the only team without conceding a goal.
Brazil and Portugal are eliminated; among traditional powerhouses, only France, Argentina, Spain, and England remain.
Highlights & Analysis
The reason France leads the championship odds (about 34-37%) is due to squad depth and Mbappé's peak form. Deschamps' system has been refined for years, from the 2018 title to the narrow loss in the 2022 final; this French team has both big-game experience and a revenge motivation. Mbappé is just 4 goals away from Klose's all-time World Cup scoring record, so his personal motivation is maxed out.
Argentina's confidence lies in Messi's last dance. At 39, he has already scored 8 goals in this tournament, even outperforming his form when they won in 2022. Scaloni has kept the championship core, and the team chemistry is excellent. But the risk is obvious: can Messi's stamina hold up to the final? Once he is contained, Argentina's offensive fluidity will significantly drop.
Spain is the most stable team of this tournament. Their possession-based system is mature, with emerging stars like Yamal, and their clean-sheet record so far is a huge psychological advantage in the knockout stages. Their question is: can they maintain possession advantage against high-pressure pressing?
Although England's group stage performance was inconsistent, key players like Bellingham and Kane are hitting their stride. Guehi has said 'no one can stop us,' and such confidence is often a double-edged sword in knockouts—it can boost morale but also bring pressure.
Public Opinion
In recent hours, X has been buzzing about the quarterfinalists, with championship discussions surging. France and Argentina are the two mainstream views.
Pro-France camp: squad depth is top-tier, Mbappé is unstoppable, Deschamps has rich big-game experience, 'Betting on France is the safest now.'
Pro-Argentina camp: Messi's last tournament, championship core intact, 'The script for defending the title is already written.'
Favoring Spain: possession + clean sheets, Yamal emerging, 'Low-key but the most stable.'
Questioning England: despite a star-studded squad, they have a long history of choking at critical moments, 'Don't be too optimistic too early.'
My judgment: France is the strongest team on paper with the highest probability of winning, but the World Cup is never just about paper strength. If France and Argentina meet in the semifinals, that will be an early final deciding the championship. Spain's stability makes them the biggest variable—if they can drag the game into their rhythm, any opponent will struggle.
If I have to pick one: France has the highest probability of winning, but Argentina's 'last dance' narrative is the strongest, Spain is the most stable, and England is the most unpredictable.