#美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免

On July 7, 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a notice revoking "General License X," which had been in effect for only 16 days and had allowed Iran to resume oil exports within 60 days. The newly issued "General License X1" immediately prohibits all new Iranian oil transactions, permitting only the completion of already-initiated wind-down activities before July 17.

This incident epitomizes a dramatic turn in U.S.-Iran relations. Just two weeks earlier (June 21), as a core concession under the U.S.-Iran "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," the U.S. had lifted oil sanctions on Iran. Now, this brief "economic breather" has been swiftly rescinded.

The official U.S. justification was that Iran attacked three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that within 24 hours, three oil tankers in the area had been struck by drones and other weapons.

The U.S. described Iran's actions as "completely unacceptable" and "a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement," and subsequently carried out retaliatory military strikes on that basis.

This exemption was itself a product of the U.S.-Iran "fight while negotiating" model.
· June 18: The two sides signed the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," exchanging a 60-day ceasefire for the U.S. lifting oil sanctions.
· June 21: The U.S. issued "General License X," exempting Iranian oil exports.
· July 7: The U.S. revoked the exemption citing the tanker attacks and launched military strikes.

Experts had previously warned that U.S.-Iran tensions were "deep-rooted and hard to resolve," making it unrealistic to resolve all issues within 60 days, and that negotiations were highly prone to reversals.

Reactions and ripple effects
· Market turmoil: International oil prices surged sharply. Brent crude broke through $75 per barrel, and WTI crude rose to around $72 per barrel, with intraday gains exceeding 5%.
· Iran protests: Condemning the U.S. for "seriously violating" Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding, and warning it would take all necessary measures to defend national interests.
· Agreement at risk: A sanctions consulting firm expert noted this move "may mean the end of this memorandum of understanding."
· Ally condemnation: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other countries condemned the attacks, saying they threaten international navigation and global energy supply security.

This is not a simple policy reversal but a high-risk political gamble that could have far-reaching implications:

1. Failure of the "pay for performance" logic: U.S. officials said Iran needed to "behave well" to benefit. But revoking the commitment after just 16 days sends a dangerous signal to the world: agreements with the U.S. may be voided at any time based on unilateral determinations, severely undermining U.S. credibility as a negotiating partner in the future.

2. Squandered diplomatic window and escalating military confrontation: The exemption was a diplomatic "carrot," while its revocation brought back the "stick." Along with the revocation, U.S. forces launched military strikes against more than 80 targets in Iran. Hardliners in Iran have called for "no cards left to play except closing the Strait of Hormuz." This could push the situation from "controllable conflict" to "full-scale confrontation."

3. Global economy and energy security held "hostage": The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint. Some analysts have criticized the move as "strategic self-harm." If tensions lead to a blockade or frequent attacks on the strait, global oil prices could spike again, putting the recovering global economy at risk.

4. Erosion of trust among regional allies: U.S. regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while condemning Iran, may also question the reliability of future U.S. security commitments given this volatile policy.

The U.S. termination of the oil sanctions exemption for Iran appears to be a tough response to an attack, but in reality reflects the deep-seated predicament of U.S.-Iran relations. It gambled the credibility of a diplomatic agreement, regional stability, and even the safety of the global economy on a short-term calculation. Under the "fight while negotiating" framework, this exemption that survived only 16 days may herald the start of a more turbulent period.