Google Chrome Store's new policy bans prediction market extensions, effective August 1. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc. are directly affected. Google controls about 65% of the global browser market share, and the Chrome Store is a key entry point for crypto applications to reach mainstream users. Banning prediction market extensions cuts off the shortest path for such platforms to acquire new users through browsers. On a deeper level, this is a signal that regulation is extending from the financial system to the infrastructure layer. Previously, the SEC and CFTC's battle with prediction markets focused on whether contracts constitute gambling or derivatives. Now Google, as a non-financial platform, proactively imposes restrictions, meaning compliance pressure is no longer limited to regulators but spreads to more underlying business ecosystems such as payments, app stores, and browsers. For Polymarket and Kalshi, alternatives are limited. Users switching to self-custody wallets or decentralized frontends will raise the usage threshold and reduce trading activity. Especially as the World Cup approaches, a time when prediction market trading volume surges, this restriction may suppress short-term growth. The risk is that if other tech giants follow suit (Apple App Store, Microsoft Edge), prediction markets will face a structural decline in traffic. Conversely, this could push the industry to accelerate the construction of truly decentralized frontend distribution channels, but there is no mature alternative in the short term.


$cftc #链上数据 #regulatory #区块链 #crypto market
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