$4,065 gold—do you dare to buy the dip?

First, the surface picture: a barrage of negative news—yet safe-haven assets are kneeling instead.

Today spot gold opened below $4,100, with a low of $4,040; at one point during the day, it was down more than 1.5%. From the January historical high of $5,602, gold has now retraced a total of nearly 27-30%. The news flow is all “reasons it should be going up”—war in the Middle East, the rupture between the US and Iran, and a surge in oil prices—but gold keeps falling.

First thing: a surge in oil prices, instead, becomes gold’s “death warrant.”

On Tuesday, the US military announced a “series of forceful” strikes against Iran, in response to Iran’s attack on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Today at the NATO summit, Trump said: “The memorandum of understanding has ended. I don’t want to deal with them anymore.”

Oil prices jumped on the news—both US crude and Brent rose more than 4-5%.

Surging oil prices → soaring inflation expectations → the Fed won’t dare to cut rates → the US dollar strengthens → gold comes under pressure. Safe-haven demand is completely crushed by rate-hike expectations.

Gold is no longer a “safe-haven asset”; it is a “slave to interest rates.”

Second thing: inflation returns to the “4% era,” and the Fed is being roasted.

In May, US CPI surged to 4.2% year-on-year, the highest since May 2023, accelerating for three straight months. Core PCE also rose to 3.4%, getting farther and farther away from the Fed’s 2% target.

Tonight (2:00 AM Beijing time on July 9), the Fed will release the minutes from its June FOMC meeting. The June meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, but the statement leaned hawkish—emphasizing that inflation is still above the 2% target.

If hawkish → gold heads straight for 3,900-3,700. If dovish → the rebound looks toward 4,200+. Tonight is gold’s “life-or-death judgment.”

Third thing: technically, it tells you whether $4,100 can be held.

Daily chart: after pushing higher to $4,180 yesterday, it fell back; the single-day swing was nearly $90. Near the close, it broke below the key support at $4,135. Today continues the weak trend, and is currently struggling in the $4,050-$4,100 range.

Key levels:

Resistance overhead: 4,130-4,140 (21-day moving average) → 4,170-4,180 (recent high) → 4,217-4,222

Support below: 4,040 (today’s low) → 4,000 (psychological line) → 3,950-3,900

Pattern: the daily chart has already broken below the uptrend line; on the 4H chart, it’s arranged bearishly; RSI is around 44, neutral but slightly weak. Any short-term rebound is just an “escape bounce.”

Bull vs. bear—you decide

On one side (bearish for gold):

A surge in oil prices lifts inflation; the Fed doesn’t dare loosen policy

The US dollar strengthens, putting gold under double pressure

The daily chart structure turns weaker, and the technicals are bearish

JPMorgan cuts its short-term gold price outlook to 4,300

On the other side (bullish for gold):

US-Iran conflict escalates; geopolitical risk is real

Global central banks keep buying gold; the long-term logic of de-dollarization endures

If the minutes are dovish, gold could stage a retaliatory, explosive rebound

Short-term players:

Lightly short in the 4,130-4,170 area on the rebound, with a stop-loss above 4,200, and targets at 4,040-4,000.

Swing traders:

Wait until the FOMC minutes land to judge the direction. If hawkish → wait to accumulate in stages around 3,900-3,950; if dovish → chase longs near 4,040, with targets of 4,200+.

Long-term believers:

Start dollar-cost averaging in the 3,800-4,000 area. Gold’s long-term logic hasn’t changed—global central banks buying gold, de-dollarization, and uncertainty in geopolitics.

You’re cursing gold as trash now; three months from now, you might be snapping your leg in frustration.

When oil prices surge and gold falls, it’s not because gold is no longer a safe haven—it’s because the market is afraid of the Fed.

If you chase gold at 5,600, but you don’t dare to take gold at 4,000—the thing that changed isn’t gold; it’s your emotions.

Gold at 4,100 is the same thing as gold at 5,600. #GUSD年化升至3.8% #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免 #SK海力士ADR获超额认购 $BTC $ETH $XAU