#SpaceXQuietPeriodEnds

One of the most important stages in SpaceX's IPO process was completed this week, resulting in a kind of optimism rarely seen on Wall Street.

The mandatory silence period for the twenty-three investment banks brokering the company's IPO ended on Tuesday. During this time, analysts at the brokering banks were not allowed to release any research reports, ratings, or price targets for the company. Once the silence period ended, more than fifteen banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, UBS, and Bank of America, released their coverage on the same day, almost all beginning with a "buy" or equivalent recommendation.

The price targets ranged widely. The most optimistic estimate came from Raymond James, with analyst Brian Gesuale setting a target of $800, describing the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century. Morgan Stanley started with a target of $300, UBS with $210, and Bernstein with $239. The average target price clusters between $225 and $236, significantly above the level at which the company traded on Tuesday. But not everyone agrees; MoffettNathanson analyst offered a neutral target of $131, arguing that CEO Elon Musk's plan to reach 100 gigawatts of computing capacity annually by 2029 is unrealistic, exceeding even today's global data center capacity. Morningstar analysts similarly took a much more cautious stance with a sell recommendation of $62.

This development coincided with SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, which necessitates passive index funds buying the stock, adding mechanical buying pressure to the picture. The company was also early-listed in the FTSE Russell and MSCI indices. But despite this wave of optimism from analysts, the share price fell by over five percent on the same day, retreating towards its IPO price, suggesting the market is preoccupied with short-term profit-taking and position balancing.

There are several more important developments to watch in the coming weeks. The company's first publicly available financial results and a significant insider release are expected in early August, which will pose a separate test in terms of liquidity and short-term price volatility. Additionally, Amazon's acceleration of its satellite internet project is creating new pressure on Starlink's competitive position.

For those following SpaceX tokenized shares via Gate, such as SPCXX (which we discussed earlier), the key point is that while the optimistic consensus generated by these analyst reports is a strong signal for long-term valuation, the stock remains quite volatile in the short term. Therefore, the first earnings announcement and the insider release in August will be the crucial tests determining whether this optimistic outlook will actually translate to price action.