Let me share my own views.

The market has been quite interesting lately. Whales accumulated 270k BTC in two weeks, while on the other side, Strategy cashed out 3,588 BTC. Both bulls and bears are busy doing their own things. The market is now waiting for a direction, and that direction will likely become clear only after the Fed minutes are released at 2:00 AM on Thursday.

This is the first meeting minutes since Warsh took office, so the market's attention is naturally high. Morgan Stanley made a point that I think makes sense—they said Warsh will be more balanced in his dual mandate and won't fixate on inflation as much as before. So what should we look for in these minutes? It's all about how the downside economic risks are described in the wording. If more committee members discuss that "employment risks are greater than inflation risks," that would basically be a dovish signal.

The impact on BTC and ETH is actually quite straightforward. BTC is currently stuck in the 61,000-64,000 range. If the minutes are dovish, the dollar weakens, liquidity expectations improve, and BTC will likely test 64,000, possibly even 66,200. Conversely, if the minutes are hawkish or don't offer anything new, disappointment could cause a pullback to 61,000-62,000, which is also normal.

As for ETH, it follows BTC's direction but with greater volatility. Under a dovish scenario, its gains will exceed BTC's, while under a hawkish scenario, its pullback will be sharper. Vitalik's roadmap is a long-term narrative; tonight's script, to be honest, is in the hands of macro factors.

A few points I personally care about:

Futures traders should really avoid heavy positions tonight. Minutes wording is much harder to predict than data, and the market tends to shake out stops on both sides. It's much safer to wait 30 minutes after the release before acting, rather than betting on direction in advance.

Spot traders can watch the 62,000-62,500 range. If BTC can't hold it after the minutes, the short-term structure weakens; if it can hold, the structure remains bullish.

No matter which direction it goes, set your stop-loss. Strategy is a map, but discipline is the navigation—this is a lesson I learned from my own losses#比特币