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US and Iran are negotiating while fighting. The market is likely to spike first and then crash. Keep an eye on three key catalysts over the next 7 days:
1. July 7: US sanctions on Iran take effect, oil prices have already surged over 5%；
2. July 11: Negotiations resume between both sides. If a deal is reached, oil prices will plunge and BTC will bounce. If talks collapse, oil prices will continue to rise and BTC will come under downward pressure；
3. July 14: US CPI data. If the data is hot, it will raise rate hike expectations. Any BTC bounce is just a chance to escape—don't go heavy on bottom-fishing.
Trading strategy: For now, the logic for going long on oil is stronger. For BTC, wait and watch in the 63000-64000 range. If it breaks above 64700, add a small long position. If it falls below 63000, go short with the trend.
What positions are you holding? $BTC $ETH