U.S. military strikes on Iran escalate Strait of Hormuz situation, WTI crude oil surges nearly 5% to break $72.

From July 7 to July 8 Beijing time, the Middle East geopolitical landscape saw dramatic shocks within just 24 hours. The U.S. Central Command announced a “series of strong” strikes against Iran in response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ continuous attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury revoked the sanctions exemption that allowed Iran to conduct international oil sales. Under this double blow, the international crude oil market surged immediately—WTI crude oil futures jumped 5.32% overnight, while Brent crude rose in tandem by more than 3%. This sudden geopolitical storm not only reignited the war premium in the energy market, but also triggered a chain of global concerns about a rebound in inflation, the path of monetary policy, and the pricing of risk assets.

Event Recap: Three Ships Attacked in 24 Hours, U.S. Airstrikes Hit Over 80 Targets

The spark for this conflict can be traced back to July 7. That day, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office issued a bulletin stating that an oil tanker was attacked by a drone while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This was the third reported ship attack in that area within 24 hours by the agency. The two vessels attacked previously were a large LNG carrier from Qatar and an oil tanker flying the Saudi flag. After the attack, the former caught fire, creating an explosion risk. Following the incidents, both Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Iran of being responsible for the ship attacks.

A few hours after the incident, the U.S. Central Command announced that it had begun a series of strong strikes against Iran. In the U.S. military statement, the strikes were described as a response to Iran’s attacks on three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz; Iran’s conduct was called “unjustified, dangerous,” and a “clear violation of the ceasefire agreement.” According to subsequent disclosed information, the U.S. used precision-guided weapons in this round of airstrikes, striking more than 80 targets inside Iran, including air defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar sites, and anti-ship missile operational capabilities. Meanwhile, in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, it also destroyed more than 60 small vessels belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Later, explosions were reported at several important ports and islands in southern Iran, including the main oil export hub—Kharg Island—as well as Qeshm Island, and the port cities of Sirik and Bandar Abbas.

At nearly the same time, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Treasury announced that it would revoke the general license previously authorized for Iran to export oil. This license was a 60-day oil sanctions exemption issued after the U.S. and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding last month. Revoking the exemption means a key arrangement in the temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been reversed.

The Logic Chain Behind the Oil Price Surge: Triple Shocks Stacking

This round of oil price soaring is not driven by a single factor, but by the overlapping resonance of multiple shocks within the same time window.

First Shock: Expectations of supply disruption surge sharply. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most core energy transportation chokepoint. Under normal circumstances, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products pass through the strait each day, accounting for roughly one quarter of total global seaborne oil trade. Any disruption to navigation in the strait could cause a systemic shock to the global oil supply chain. The U.S. airstrikes and Iran’s potential retaliation have sharply heightened market concerns about the safety of passage through the strait. Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, noted that this development “reminds the market that the passage through the strait remains very fragile.”

Second Shock: Revocation of the sanctions exemption directly cuts supply. The U.S. revocation of Iran’s oil export license means that, in the short term, Iran may lose legitimate channels for exporting oil. Although Iran has not yet acknowledged involvement in the merchant ship attacks, the U.S. has determined that the attacks violated the ceasefire agreement and used this as the trigger for countermeasures. The expectation of supply contraction has been directly reflected in futures pricing.

Third Shock: Short covering amplifies price elasticity. Before the conflict escalated, the crude oil futures market had accumulated a large number of short positions. Kavonic said the incident “may prompt some record-breaking short covering positions.” The buying pressure brought by short covering further magnified the extent of the oil price rally.

Full-View Scan of Market Data

As of July 8 Beijing time, Gate market data showed that all three major energy products rose sharply across the board:

WTI Crude Oil (CL USDT): Latest price $72.34, 24-hour increase +4.61%, 24-hour price range $68.98–$72.80, 24-hour trading volume $8.3311 million.

Brent Crude Oil (BZ USDT): Latest price $76.00, 24-hour increase +4.76%, 24-hour price range $72.48–$76.52, 24-hour trading volume $3.4224 million.

Natural Gas (NG USDT): Latest price $3.270, 24-hour increase +1.33%, 24-hour price range $3.185–$3.316, 24-hour trading volume $0.5733 million.

For other market data, WTI crude oil futures rose by as much as over 5% overnight, while Brent crude oil futures expanded gains to 3%, reaching $76.383 per barrel. In the domestic futures market, the main crude oil contract rose more than 5% during the day to 461.4 yuan per barrel, and benchmark contracts for fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and others also surged in sync.

Cross-Asset Transmission: Stock Market Under Pressure, Gold Volatility, Crypto Market Splits

The sharp spike in oil prices triggered a chain reaction across asset classes.

In U.S. stocks, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.16%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped to a six-month low. The S&P 500 index fell 0.5% to 7,505 points. Chip stocks became the lagging sector, and investors began to pull back from AI-related stocks. Rising oil prices lifted inflation expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields rose across maturities in parallel; the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 8.2 basis points to 4.55%.

For gold, the trend diverged significantly from oil. Spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce, and in early trading on July 8 in Singapore, it briefly fell to $4,098.04 per ounce. The energy-inflation concerns sparked by the rise in oil strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high; as a result, gold—an asset that does not pay yield—came under pressure.

In the cryptocurrency market, major coins fell across the board. After Bitcoin briefly broke through the $64,000 whole-dollar level in the early hours of July 8, it quickly pulled back, trading at $63,634 for the time being. According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT briefly fell below $63,000, with a 24-hour decline of 1.32%. Ethereum also weakened in tandem, failing to break above the 50-day exponential moving average of $1,803.

During this geopolitical event, Bitcoin failed to demonstrate the “digital gold” safe-haven attribute; instead, it weakened in line with risk assets. This further confirms the high linkage between the current crypto market and macro liquidity—against the backdrop of warming inflation expectations and not yet fully dispelled rate-hike expectations, Bitcoin is more inclined to be viewed as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset.

Institutional Viewpoints: Geopolitical Premium Reignited, But Fundamental Constraints Still Apply

Market institutions have differing views on the nature and sustainability of this oil price surge.

Shenyin & Wanguo Futures Research Institute believes that the geopolitical situation has moved from a “game” stage to actual conflict. The previous oil price ceiling anchor built by “UAE rerouting exports + negotiation expectations” has failed in the short term, and the geopolitical premium has shifted back from “institutionalized revenue sharing” to a risk pricing of “supply disruption.” The market needs to pay close attention to whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz is subject to an actual substantive blockade.

Guoxin Futures analysis pointed out that the U.S. revoked the license and simultaneously launched military strikes—this is a direct response to Iran’s attacks on merchant ships. From a technical perspective, oil prices have turned from short-term volatility to strength, and trading recommendations lean more toward a bullish approach.

Everbright Futures also reminded that despite the tense situation, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding the nuclear program and easing sanctions are still ongoing. API data shows that for the week ending July 3, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 399,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.93 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels. Continued declines in inventories provide additional underlying support for oil prices.

Cinda Futures holds a relatively cautious long-term view. The institution noted that the oversupply pattern on the supply side is further taking shape. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its global production expectations, and OPEC+ will increase production again in August by 188,000 barrels per day. On the demand side, the EIA lowered its 2026 forecast for global crude oil demand, expecting an average daily reduction of about 1.2 million barrels. Cinda Futures believes the core logic for oil prices is currently switching from “wartime tightness” to “post-war oversupply,” and once the geopolitical premium has largely cleared, pricing will return to supply-and-demand fundamentals.

Overall, it is certain that the reassessment of the short-term geopolitical risk premium is underway, but the medium-term direction still depends on the actual transit situation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s response approach, and OPEC+’s supply schedule.

Potential Risks and Follow-Up Scenarios

There are multiple possible paths for the current situation to evolve, and each path corresponds to different market impacts:

Path One: Conflict escalates only limitedly, then cools down quickly. If the U.S. and Iran return to the negotiation track within a few days, the geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices will quickly fade, and prices may fall back to levels before the conflict. This is the baseline scenario for market participants, but it depends on Iran not taking large-scale retaliatory actions.

Path Two: Substantial disruption to Strait of Hormuz passage. If Iran responds by blocking or interfering with navigation through the strait, the global oil supply chain will face a systemic shock. Given that the strait carries about 20 million barrels per day on average, any sustained disruption creates a risk of a significant upward move in oil prices.

Path Three: Sanctions become prolonged and supply is restructured. Even if the military conflict cools down, if the U.S. revocation of the oil sanctions exemption remains in place long term, Iran’s export capacity will continue to be constrained. Global oil trade flows will face reconfiguration, and transportation costs and regional price differentials may widen.

In addition, European natural gas futures prices have already jumped by 4.9%. If the conflict escalates further, a broad rise in energy prices could reignite global inflation pressure, thereby affecting monetary policy paths of central banks around the world.

Conclusion

On July 8, 2026, cannon fire at the Strait of Hormuz tightened nerves again for the global energy market. WTI crude oil’s near 5% one-day surge is not just another price fluctuation, but another warning about the vulnerability of the global oil supply chain. At the intersection of geopolitics and energy security, any minor disruption may be dramatically magnified through the leverage effect of the futures market.

For investors, the most critical variable right now is not the oil price itself, but the transit status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s response approach, and whether the U.S. and Iran are willing to return to the negotiating table. Until geopolitical risks become clearer, the high-volatility state of the energy market is likely to persist. Gate will continue to track the U.S.-Iran situation and energy market developments, providing timely and professional market insights and risk alerts to investors.

FAQ

Q: How large was the scale of the U.S. military strike against Iran this time?

The U.S. Central Command said the airstrikes used precision-guided weapons and hit more than 80 targets inside Iran, including air defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar sites, and anti-ship missile capabilities. At the same time, it destroyed more than 60 small vessels of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. This is the largest military confrontation since the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran last month.

Q: How important is the Strait of Hormuz to the global energy market?

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transport chokepoint. Under normal conditions, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products pass through daily, accounting for about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. About 80% of the volume is shipped to Asia. China imports about 5–5.5 million barrels of crude oil per day through this strait, representing 45–50% of its imports. Any disruption to navigation through the strait will create a systemic shock to the global energy supply chain.

Q: Why did oil prices surge, but gold and Bitcoin fell instead?

The rise in oil prices heightened market concerns about energy-driven inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high. As a non-yielding asset, gold therefore came under pressure. Bitcoin failed to show safe-haven characteristics in this event; instead, it weakened in sync with risk assets, reflecting the current crypto market’s strong linkage to macro liquidity—against the backdrop of rate-hike expectations not being fully dispelled, Bitcoin is more likely to be treated as a risk asset.

Q: How long will the oil price rally last?

In the short term, the reassessment of the geopolitical risk premium is certain, and oil prices will likely stay in a relatively strong range until the conflict becomes clearer. But the medium-term trend depends on the actual transit conditions of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s response approach, and OPEC+’s supply schedule. Some institutions believe an oversupply pattern on the supply side is taking shape, and after the geopolitical premium is priced out, oil prices will return to supply-and-demand fundamentals.

Q: What energy products can be traded on Gate?

Gate offers perpetual contract trading for WTI crude oil (CL USDT), Brent crude oil (BZ USDT), and natural gas (NG USDT). Users can track energy market price movements in real time via the Gate platform and participate in investment opportunities in the global energy market.