7.8 Midday Analysis

The short positions I gave you yesterday, big and small, have all profited, right? Let's talk about the current market situation and conditions.
Macro Perspective: Tightened Liquidity Suppresses BTC Upside
The Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet, draining hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity from the market each month. $BTC, as the most liquidity-sensitive asset, lacks the macro foundation for a trend upward. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains strong, U.S. bond yields are high, and the opportunity cost for institutions holding BTC is still elevated, with insufficient willingness for new funds to enter. The oscillation between 62,000 and 64,000 looks more like a bear market rally than a bottom formation.
Capital Flow Perspective: Inflow Signals Misread, Selling Pressure Is Accumulating
The net inflow of +$2.89 million on the surface is likely short opening rather than long bottom-fishing in a declining environment. Meanwhile, trading volume is only 95k, indicating a shrinking bearish decline—a volume-less drop is more dangerous than a sharp drop with high volume, showing severe lack of buying support. On-chain data shows increased outflows from miner addresses and rising BTC balances on exchanges, with potential selling pressure building up. The slowdown in stablecoin inflows to exchanges means off-market funds are running low, lacking new capital to absorb overhead trapped positions.
Technical Perspective: Multiple Signals Bearish Convergence
Bollinger Bands System: Price is trading below the middle band (63,199) with the middle band turning downward, and the lower band (62,321) is being tested. The Bollinger Bands show signs of widening. Historical experience suggests that widening bands often accompany trending moves, and the current direction is likely downward.
MACD Indicator: DIF (385) continues to widen below DEA (496), with histogram bars negative (-223), indicating bearish momentum is not exhausted. Price is ranging while MACD weakens, a typical weak repair.
RSI Indicator: RSI6 (37.76) is near oversold, but each rebound stalls below the 50 neutral line, showing bulls are unable to mount effective counterattacks—this is weak stagnation, not a reversal signal.
Candlestick Pattern: Recent daily candles show repeated long upper wicks, meaning each intraday rally is quickly suppressed by shorts, with buy orders being continuously absorbed—often a sign of buildup before a major drop. Yifan's personal suggestion: Short at 63,800-64,600, targets 62,500-61,800, if broken, next target near 61,000. #BTC #BTC #BTC走势分析