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7.8 Wednesday Midday Market Analysis
The US military is taking military action against Iran, but US officials simultaneously stated that they are "still seriously negotiating with Iran, striving to reach a final agreement." Fighting while negotiating. This situation is common in the market. On the candlestick chart, such a pattern usually appears: the price first rapidly rises, then rapidly falls.
In the next 7 days, there are three important time points to focus on:
July 7: US sanctions on Iran take effect, while oil-related permits are revoked, and the US military also launched actions. That day, oil prices rose over 5% directly, which is the first wave of impact.
July 11: The US and Iran will negotiate in Pakistan. If an agreement is reached, oil prices may fall, and the cryptocurrency market may rebound; if talks break down, oil prices may continue to rise, and BTC may continue to fall.
July 14: The US will release the June CPI inflation data. This is the last important data before the Fed's meeting at the end of July. If the data is poor, market expectations for a rate hike in September will increase, and then the rebound may just be an opportunity for everyone to escape, rather than a signal to heavily buy.
In the early morning, after surging to 6.4w, it faced pressure and began to pull back. From the 4-hour weekly chart, the moving averages around 6.4w and 1.8k are still strong resistance being suppressed. After this round of rebound, there is no sign of a sustained rally.
Plus, daytime volatility itself is relatively small and in a consolidation state. During the day, we still mainly take short positions.
BTC Trading Suggestion: Short above 63000, add position around 64000, stop loss 65000, take profit 62000-60500.
ETH Trading Suggestion: Short above 1780, add position near 1810, stop loss 1850, take profit 1730-1650.