Wintermute Alert: Bitcoin’s Recent Bounce May Be a “Relief Rally,” Not a Trend Reversal

Recently, Bitcoin’s price rebounded to multi-week highs. However, crypto market maker Wintermute remains cautious, believing that this upswing is more likely a short-term “relief rally” rather than a signal of a fundamental shift in the market trend.

The analysis suggests that a more accommodating macroeconomic environment, the Federal Reserve’s more dovish stance, and the three related tailwinds—Ethereum’s developments and institutional adoption—are sufficient to drive the current market rebound without needing to look for a broader narrative for support.

However, given that the market currently lacks the clear fundamental drivers mentioned above, the company takes a cautious stance toward this rebound. As far as it is concerned, there is still substantial uncertainty over whether this rebound can be sustained.

Despite Bitcoin’s recovery from its lows and the ETF market having recorded net inflows for more than 2 consecutive days, based on the market structure it has observed, while demand for leverage in the derivatives market has begun to show early signs of warming up, it remains low overall, and the foundation for the rebound is not yet solid.

The market maker also reminds investors that such rebounds often occur when the market is overly pessimistic. But if there is a lack of sustained incremental capital and clear macro catalysts, it may be difficult for prices to form a trend reversal.

Overall, the market is still in a phase of testing key pressure levels. Investors need to closely monitor the subsequent on-chain data and the developments in the macroeconomic environment, as these factors may have an important impact on where the market goes.

#市场观点 #On-chain data