Late-night bombshell! On the eve of the Fed minutes, the "Silent Hawk" Warsh blocks all clues, Wall Street falls into a rate guessing game. Should retail investors run or stay with their $BTC?

Friend, while you're staring at the K-line chart in anxiety, there's a group of people on the other side of the ocean even more panicked than you. At 2 a.m. tomorrow, the Fed's June meeting minutes will be released, but the market's expected signal on rate hikes will likely yield absolutely nothing.

I've gone through all the materials to explain this to you clearly. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been determined to play the "silent hawk" since taking office at the end of May. He has publicly stated that the Fed does not provide forward guidance. Are you waiting to dig out clues from the minutes about "how far away from a rate hike"? Steven Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered, bluntly says: Warsh will end the old tradition where minutes occasionally allowed investors to "glimpse behind the curtain."

After the June meeting, the statement was as short as a telegram, with Warsh dodging reporters' questions about interest rates. Although the market read a "hawkish" tone—with nine officials signaling rate hikes, far more than economists expected—Warsh himself said nothing extra.

In early July, he continued to keep his mouth shut at the global central bank seminar. Citigroup economists wrote in a client note that he "remained silent on market-related topics." Englander put it plainly: "Warsh has made it clear that the Fed does not provide forward guidance. He will not let the minutes become a backdoor for the market to see things he doesn't want it to see."

Do you know how the Fed produces its minutes? Each meeting is recorded, but the official transcript is released only five years later. What's currently released is a "summary" of internal discussions published three weeks later. Warsh wants to bring the Fed back to the era of Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, when excessive transparency was seen as dangerous, and the minutes contained almost no usable information.

Former Chair Ben Bernanke reformed the minutes by including the views of non-voting members, showing the positions of all 19 officials. But now, Englander believes that even with reduced transparency, the minutes still hold reference value for investors—"We will infer from the minutes what Warsh wants us to know and what he doesn't. This helps us understand how he intends to steer the Fed."

Warsh has said he welcomes divergence among officials, even "family disputes." But Englander warns: Another implication is that disputes occur behind closed doors, and the outside world has no idea what topics are on the table.

Officials have indeed been speaking less. According to Bloomberg's Fed activity calendar, since the June meeting, officials have made only 18 public speeches. In the same period last year, it was 49; two years ago, it was 55. A drop of over 60%.

Economists are uneasy about this. Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, wrote in a report: "When the market has to guess—both about what the latest data means for the economic outlook and about how the Fed will respond to those changes—market signals become blurred." Many economists believe that the more silent the Fed, the more likely asset price volatility will increase.

Englander thinks the impact won't be too severe, but he added: "Minutes with insufficient information" could lead to a credibility problem. Warsh has yet to indicate whether he will raise rates when necessary, only committing to maintaining price stability. Englander says: "Deliberately avoiding any discussion of rate hikes could eventually be interpreted by the market as a reluctance to act. If the market thinks he doesn't want to talk about rate hikes to avoid offending the president, while data suggests rate hikes should be on the agenda—that could turn into a credibility problem."

For me personally, this is neither bearish nor bullish. It's an information vacuum. In a vacuum, price movements of assets like $BTC and $ETH will rely more on technicals, capital flows, and sentiment trading. Either accept this reality and draw your own charts, or wait for Warsh to speak—but he likely won't.

Remember: When everyone is guessing riddles, your best strategy is not to guess the answer, but to light your own lamp.

(Based on public data from market research institutions and analyst commentary)

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