BTC/ETH Early Morning Outlook｜2026.07.08 07:50

Yesterday’s Review: Yesterday, the key level for BTC was 63600~63800. The actual 24-hour range was approximately 62613~64258. During the session, it first broke below the key level, then rebounded above 64200, and finally returned to around 63400. This partially confirmed the call that “holding the level allows for recovery, while falling below first sees a pullback.” However, the resistance above was not broken, so the previously cautious offensive rhythm needs to be scaled down. For ETH, the key level yesterday was 1785~1800. The actual 24-hour range was about 1756~1811. After a rally, it fell back below the key level, and the recovery did not continue—this conclusion was partially confirmed. Altcoins were judged to be in a cautiously offensive position yesterday, but ETH did not significantly outperform BTC, and momentum did not sustain. Today, the assessment is revised to a defensive stance.

Today’s Overall Judgment: Both BTC and ETH are in a state of oscillating confirmation after retreating from resistance zones, not a unilateral bullish shift. BTC remains above the 4-hour middle Bollinger band, but the MACD red bars on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts continue to shrink. ETH has fallen back near the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages, while the daily chart is still constrained by the MA50 and the upper Bollinger band. Today, we first watch the quality of defense, then see if the resistance levels can be reclaimed. Altcoins are overall in a defensive stance, and even strong coins are not suitable for chasing without confirmation.

BTC: Current price ~63396, 24-hour change ~-0.95%, 24-hour range ~62613~64258, volume below the 20-day average. On the 1-hour chart, the price is near MA20 (~63423) and MA50 (~63334), with a Bollinger range of ~62780~64066. The MACD green bars are expanding, indicating fading momentum after the rally. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains above MA20 (~63203) and MA50 (~61666), with a Bollinger range of ~62336~64069. However, resistance near the upper band persists, and red bars are shrinking. The daily chart stands above MA20 (~61867) but is below MA50 (~66214). The weekly chart is still below MA20, and the monthly level shows only a low-range recovery. Short-term support: 63000~63200, strong support: 62600~62800. Short-term resistance: 63800~64000, strong resistance: 64250~64650. Today’s key level for BTC: 63200~63400. Holding this range allows continued oscillatory recovery; breaking below points to initial support near 62600.

ETH: Current price ~1771, 24-hour change ~-1.53%, 24-hour range ~1756~1811, volume also below the 20-day average. On the 1-hour chart, the price is below MA20 (~1780) and MA50 (~1779), with a Bollinger range of ~1757~1803. The MACD green bars are expanding, showing weaker short-term performance than BTC. On the 4-hour chart, the price is near MA20 (~1778), with the 1800~1811 zone still acting as resistance. The daily chart, while above MA20 (~1677), is close to the daily MA50 (~1795) and the upper Bollinger band (~1839). It cannot be treated as strong momentum until it breaks above with volume. Short-term support: 1760~1770, strong support: 1728~1755. Short-term resistance: 1790~1805, strong resistance: 1810~1835. Today’s key level for ETH: 1770~1780. Reclaiming this level would allow continued recovery; falling below 1760 would further cool altcoin momentum.

Today’s Altcoin Correlation Judgment: Altcoins are in a defensive stance today. Only if BTC holds 63200~63400 and reclaims the 64000 area, while ETH recovers above 1780 and challenges 1805, will altcoins have a short-term recovery window. If BTC breaks below 63000, or ETH underperforms BTC and loses 1760, altcoins are likely to shift from catch-up gains to declines. Weak coins should see minimal activity. Today, we are not looking for a full offensive; we are only watching for localized opportunities after the key levels are confirmed.

Public Version Operation Principle: Do not chase highs today. First, wait for BTC and ETH to give confirmation near their respective key levels. If they break below the key levels, reduce positions defensively; if they reclaim short-term resistance, look for continued recovery. Until both key resistances are reclaimed simultaneously, do not treat altcoin rebounds as a broad market rally. For the full watchlist and individual coin strategies, see the subscription newsletter or group documentation.

Risk Disclaimer: The above content is only a market projection and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; pay attention to position sizing and stop-losses.