Bernstein called the $150 000 target for bitcoin achievable - ForkLog

# Bernstein called the $150,000 target for Bitcoin achievable

K33 specialists saw signs of the first cryptocurrency approaching its bottom

Bernstein analysts maintained an "ambitious" forecast for digital gold, citing the $150,000 mark as the main target by the end of the year. They called the 54% decline from the October peak a "mild" correction, writes The Block.

The current correction has lasted about three quarters, experts noted. Historically, major bear phases have stretched over 12-15 months, with price drops from local highs of 75-90%.

According to them, the dynamics indicate the maturity of the crypto market. However, it is still unclear whether the decline has completely ended, Bernstein noted.

What supports the forecast

Bernstein believes that fundamental factors remain favorable for further Bitcoin growth. One of them is capital flows.

Since the beginning of the year, total One of them analysts called capital flows. Since the start of 2026, total inflows through corporate Bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs amounted to about $10 billion.

At the same time, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds. However, against the backdrop of the structures' assets of $74 billion, Bernstein called such outflows limited. Corporate buyers provided the positive net inflow.

Strategy remains the main source of demand. Since January, the company has purchased about 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing reserves to 847,363 BTC. According to Bernstein's estimate, the company's debt load is about 13% of the value of its Bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to service interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months.

Analysts also noted that Strategy retains the ability to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to fund dividends, interest payments, and share buybacks.

At the same time, the company's purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, some of which redirected capital to AI infrastructure and data centers.

Changes in US regulation could provide additional support to the market. Bernstein pointed to:

• the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins;
• the launch of perpetual cryptocurrency futures via Kalshi and Coinbase;
• the growth of the RWA market, whose volume reached about $52 billion.

The company estimated the probability of the Clarity Act passing by the end of 2026 at approximately 50%.

Historical signal triggered

A similar conclusion based on a different metric was presented by specialists from K33. According to their observations, more than half of Bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss. Over the month, the indicator rose from about 30% to over 50%. Over 10 million BTC last moved at prices above current levels.

Source: K33. According to K33's estimate, historically such values have been observed only in the late stages of bear phases and usually preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks:

• in the cycles of 2018 and 2022, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared;
• in 2017 — after 31 days.

The exception was the 2014 cycle: then it took 101 days to reach the final bottom, and the price fell another 46% during that time.

Analysts cited as additional confirmation Bitcoin's return to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market lows. At the same time, RSI dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the Fear and Greed Index reached 8 ("extreme fear").

At the same time, K33 emphasized that the current cycle may differ from previous ones. Experts consider the large-scale capital outflow from exchange crypto products as one of the pressure factors: over four weeks, investors withdrew about 85,600 BTC — the largest figure in the entire history of observations.

Despite this, long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and already control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share that the company views as a sign of sustained long-term demand.

K33 believes that the $60,000 area may already serve as a guide for long-term accumulation and claims to be the bottom of the current cycle.

Recall that in July, CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym TheChessOnChain suggested Bitcoin could fall below $58,000.