7.7 Market Analysis — Brief Update

Trend Direction: Uncertain

Technical Analysis:

BTC

Last night, BTC surged to 64692. It was less than 100 USD away from the shorting entry level around 64774 mentioned in yesterday’s article. I don’t know how many people followed it and placed the trade. If you did, it’s recommended to take profit on half the position and move the stop loss to breakeven on the remaining half.

After yesterday’s selloff and pullback, BTC has successfully reached the key 12H moving average support at MA30. This round of risk release has also pushed BTC into a new upward channel. During the daytime session, after retracing to the 12H MA90, it received support again. From the chart, the bullish structure has not ended—for now. However, above, the 12H MA90 and the 4H MA250 are still diverging downward and suppressing price. Therefore, even if the bullish move can continue, personally I still lean toward the need for two more actions: a second rally peak, then a pullback, followed by consolidation, and only then a breakout. The most ideal scenario would be: after the second top that tests the 4H MA250, BTC pulls back to a larger departure zone, and then moves upward again.

Of course, ideals cannot affect objective analysis. The strong resistance zone above is 65624-67735 (mentioned multiple times earlier). The daily EMA50 resonates with the lower edge of this resistance zone at 65624, while the weekly MA180 resonates with the upper edge at 67735. So even if the trend is bullish, the upside is ultimately limited to these two levels. In other words, for this rally, my personal view of the ultimate target zone is 65624-67735. Coming back to the current chart, should we look for a pullback or a continued rally to break to new highs? Objectively speaking, price action has not given any clear indication. If during the night session price can retrace to around 62390 without breaking it, then it’s bullish; if it breaks, then very clearly it will be a short setup—attempting to short from 62390 to the downside.

ETH

Yesterday, after ETH retraced to the upper boundary of the rising channel, it quickly stretched upward in coordination with the news from “Lao Chuanz(i)” (the old Chuanzi). However, unfortunately, it did not manage to reach the first take-profit level of 1836. It ultimately ended with a stop-loss at 1804. Price action was very clear: after a brief break below the main control line at 1748, it received support at the 4H MA30 and provided a long-on-the-rebound signal. So yesterday, I also took a quick right-side trade and captured a profit of several dozen USD.

During the daytime session, after retracing to the 12H MA90, it found support and rebounded. But the resistance level at 1795 was not effectively broken. The key support below is still the short-term support area formed by the main control line (around 1748) and the 12H MA90 (around 1762). As long as price does not break below this area, the bullish outlook remains.

Although the bullish structure has not been clearly broken, and yesterday’s pullback-rebound came after bearish momentum was released, personally I still expect the possibility of reaching the second target at around 1842, and even the third target at around 1893. But since the resistance above is relatively dense, looking at moving average angles, the weekly MA10, the daily MA60, and the 12H MA120 are diverging downward in resonance. Meanwhile, the daily EMA50 that has already been reached is still exerting suppression (though it has been touched 4 times, meaning there is a chance for a breakout). Even though moving averages at lower timeframes are showing turning points, a “turning down” does not mean there’s no “pullback drag” effect to the downside. Therefore, when price reaches this area, risk is already increasing. My trading suggestion is that it’s better not to be overly aggressive on left-side trades; instead, focus more on price action and trade mainly from the right side after confirmation.

Comprehensive Analysis:

From today’s analysis, it’s not hard to see that my ability is limited. At this point, I can no longer clearly determine the trend. The key is still to watch BTC near 62390 and ETH near 1,748. Only after clear breakdown or support price action appears should you consider tentative trades (with a stop loss).

The Nasdaq opened higher than I expected yesterday and kept rising. But at the daily level, MA30 is still forming resistance. Under the current market conditions, I can’t go on making random statements to attract attention with subjective trading bias. Objectively, it’s impossible to clearly read the trend direction. For short-term trading, you can try right-side entries based on the 1H and 15M structure and price action. However, for the trend, resistance and support levels are squeezing the space for consolidation, so the direction could go up or down. Wildly guessing the direction—if you guess right you get praised, and if you guess wrong you delete the post—I’m not the type to bother with that.

To sum it up from a trend perspective: ETH is nearing my second target around 1842, and BTC also yesterday hit a point within less than 100 USD of the resistance level. Although even with a trading bias I still maintain the view of higher targets (mentioned in the text), who can guarantee that even if price rises to the ideal target, it won’t first drop significantly in a pullback before rising again?

So today, the suggestion is either to rest, or wait for the right-side signal before placing trades. Missing the move is better than losing money from wild guessing.