How far are we from the end of the crypto bear market?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina___)_

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010__)_

According to Coinglass data, from May 19 to today (July 3), the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in a "negative" state for 46 consecutive days, setting a record for the "longest consecutive negative" streak. Previously, the index was in a negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, setting the longest "consecutive negative" record since the index was launched, surpassing the approximately 30-day consecutive negative premium during the "10·11 crash" last year.

Considering that BTC and ETH have recently fallen below key levels such as $58,000 and $1,600, the exact end time of the bear market remains unclear, making the wait particularly agonizing for many.

Overview of Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

The Biggest Trigger for BTC's Plunge: Strategy Sells BTC to Survive, Expanding Losses

In late May and early June, Strategy, the largest BTC treasury company and leading cryptocurrency concept stock, sold BTC again after three years. This transaction of only 32 BTC quickly sparked panic in the crypto market, like the last straw that broke the camel's back. The prices of mainstream coins such as BTC, ETH, and SOL subsequently plummeted.

Coupled with continuous net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and persistent bloodletting in the crypto market, the shadow of the crypto bear market once again hangs over everyone in the industry.

Bear Market Beginning: BTC Records Worst Single-Week Performance Since 2022 in Early June

In the first week of June, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60k, recording its worst single-week performance since the FTX exchange crash in 2022. Over the seven days ending June 7, Bitcoin fell 16% cumulatively, retreating more than 50% from its all-time high of over $126k in 2025.

Data at the time showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows of approximately $5.5 billion. Additionally, Bitcoin's price fell below the widely regarded key support level of the "200-week moving average," further weakening market confidence.

Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market as a "silent bear market," believing that falling below the 200-week moving average is an important confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.

Although BTC subsequently rebounded slightly to around $65,000, several market analysts warned at the time that the rebound might be unsustainable, and Bitcoin may not yet have hit the bottom of this cycle. Primal Fund co-founder Griffin Ardern said the market is still some distance from a "true bottom."

From the author's perspective, if the market still had expectations for a significant BTC rebound in May, Strategy's move to sell BTC to survive directly shattered the last shred of hope, marking the iconic start of the "bear market confirmation."

Bear Market Continues: Many Institutions' Predictions of Bear Market End Prove Wrong

On June 11, crypto research firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin might form a bottom around $53,600, which is the current realized price of Bitcoin—the average on-chain cost basis of all market participants. The report noted that in previous major bear market cycles, Bitcoin typically bottoms near or slightly below its realized price.

On June 12, BIT released its latest weekly report titled "Will the FIFA World Cup Be the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market?" It suggested that Bitcoin's current bear market trend is largely consistent with its early February 2026 outlook, and the previously predicted A-B-C correction structure has entered its final phase: after the A-wave decline to the $60k-$69k range, Bitcoin rebounded to the $80k-$90k range and peaked at around $83k, with momentum gradually weakening.

BIT pointed out that the current Fear and Greed Index has approached historically low levels with significant reference value, still showing some similarity to the bear market bottom structure in 2022. It maintained its previous view that the summer trading lull during the 2026 World Cup could mark the end of this Bitcoin bear market.

On June 17, crypto research firm K33 stated that the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders hit an all-time high, suggesting the bear market may be nearing its end. It emphasized that the reactivation of old coins in 2026 was notably low, with only 218,421 Bitcoins reactivated as of June 6, indicating a significant decrease in on-chain selling pressure. In contrast, 1.18 million Bitcoins had been reactivated during the same period in 2024. K33 believes the decline in old coin activity indicates a reduced willingness of long-term holders to sell, with patient participants continuously absorbing supply.

But soon, further declines in BTC shattered these illusions, and the bear market's march continued.

Bear Market Indicators: STRC De-pegs Below $100, Long-term BTC and ETH Holders' Losses Widen

On June 18, after falling below $95 earlier in the month, Strategy's preferred stock STRC dropped below $90, closing at $89, marking its lowest daily close since its IPO and the lowest dividend-adjusted close since November last year.

Subsequently, STRC continued to decline, persistently de-pegging.

On June 26, STRC's pre-market price briefly fell to $73, hitting an all-time low. Market attention shifted to two events: first, the ex-dividend date on June 30, with eligible holders receiving a dividend of $0.48 per share on July 15; second, the monthly dividend rate reset, with STRC's effective yield approaching nearly 15%, leading investors to expect Strategy to raise the dividend rate from 11.50% to at least 12% or 12.50%.

Three days later, on June 29, Strategy announced a $1 billion digital credit securities repurchase plan and introduced a board-approved "maximum $1.25 billion BTC monetization plan." Its dollar reserves increased to $2.55 billion with the implementation of various fundraising plans, allowing it to service dividends on STRC and other preferred shares. The discount crisis for STRC was temporarily resolved, and its price rebounded above $80, currently trading at $87.87.

Source: Strategy Official Website

However, due to the continued decline of BTC and ETH, losses for long-term holders have further widened.

On June 25, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $59,100, with 10.83 million BTC in a loss position, a record high, exceeding the previous bear market bottom peak of about 10.5 million. Long-term holders (holding for at least 155 days) held a record 14.8 million BTC (Odaily Planet Daily Note: The total circulating Bitcoin supply is approximately 20 million) , of which 37% were in a loss position. The latest data shows that the number of long-term BTC holdings has grown to 16.61 million BTC today, with the average cost basis dropping to around $49,700.

Data on June 26 showed that ETH whales had fallen into a loss position for the first time since 2019. Even during the 2022 bear market, the largest whales holding over 100k ETH remained profitable. Currently, the unrealized profit ratios for all three whale groups are negative: -0.26 for the 1,000-10k ETH range, -0.21 for the 10,000-100k ETH range, and -0.05 for the over 100,000 ETH range. This situation has persisted for weeks.

On June 28, Bitcoin UTXO data showed that the current ratio of loss-making transactions to profit-making transactions in the market has fallen to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "capitulation" phase. A similar low last occurred during the mid-2023 bear market depth, when Bitcoin's price dropped to around $26,000.

Previously, due to the continued price decline, ETH's market cap briefly fell below $185 billion, being overtaken by USDT. With the price rebounding above $1,700, ETH's market cap currently stands at $207 billion.

In summary, the return of STRC to $100 and BTC and ETH long-term holders exiting loss positions will be key indicators of the end of the bear market.

Speculation on the End Date of the Bear Market: August or December?

Regarding the specific end time of the bear market, there is currently no mainstream consensus. Here, we only reference the views of some industry insiders for reference.

Yi Lihua: July-August May be a Good Time to Buy the Dip

At the end of June, Yi Lihua, founder of TrendResearch, stated that the current decline is the third wave of drops since 1011. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this could be the last major drop for Bitcoin.

The market is most concerned about Bitcoin's bottom price this time, with the main factors being the U.S. stock market and MicroStrategy. The Federal Reserve's concerns about CPI may trigger changes in expectations of rate cuts or even rate hikes, leading to a sustained pullback in U.S. stocks. Secondly, past bear market tails often saw black swans or blow-up events, none of which have occurred in this cycle, so close monitoring is still needed.

Based on Bitcoin's high of $126k, a 60% decline corresponds to $51k, and a 66% decline corresponds to $43k. In any case, July to August should be the last time and the best time to buy the dip, perhaps even the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years.

Jiang Zhuoer: BTC Will Bottom at $42k-$44k Between October and December

On June 25, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Laibite Pool, predicted that this BTC bear market will bottom at $44,016 on October 31 this year. Combining the pattern where mNAV leads BTC price by six months, he revised the bottoming window to October-December 2026, with a bottom price range of $42k-$44k.

He pointed out the underlying logic: Strategy's common stock MSTR's mNAV (stock price/BTC value per share ratio) has fallen to 0.72, close to the lowest point of 0.7 during the bull market on May 11, 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events such as STRC's significant de-pegging, it can currently be predicted as the lowest mNAV region of this cycle. However, the lowest mNAV does not coincide with the lowest BTC price. In the previous cycle, mNAV bottomed at 0.7 on May 11, 2022, when BTC was $31,017, while BTC bottomed at $15,476 on November 21, 2022, with mNAV at 1.2, a six-month gap.

BTC Price Indicators: 4-Year Average Price, 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap

According to Coinglass data, the BTC 4-year average price index showed that from June 25 to June 30, as BTC briefly fell below $59,000, the index dropped to 0.95; currently, with BTC rebounding above $61,000, it has recovered to around 1.

According to the BTC 200-week moving average heatmap, BTC's price is currently roughly flat with the 200-week average line and has been consistently below the 200-week average line since June 23, possibly indicating a price bottom.

Additionally, returning to the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index mentioned at the beginning of the article, it is still at -0.123%. Based on previous positive ranges, BTC would need to rebound to around $77,000 for the index to turn positive.

In summary, without strong external bullish catalysts, this bear market will likely last at least another 2-3 months, with late September to early October being the window to determine whether BTC can rebound.

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