😱Guys, the CLARITY Act is going down in history! It didn’t get signed on July 4th, but the probability instead climbed back from 40% to 52%? I just can’t make sense of this.😱

Before July 4th, everyone was betting on a “National Day gift.” A White House adviser even personally said they would get the CLARITY Act signed before Independence Day. So what happened? It got signed—into nothingness. The White House went silent, the House procedures stalled, and the Senate didn’t even make time on the schedule for a full floor vote. By normal logic, wouldn’t a positive catalyst failing cause a plunge?

Then something amazing happened—on Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing didn’t drop; it actually rose, jumping from below 40% straight back to 52%.
$BTC ‌
It’s like your girlfriend promised to meet your parents this weekend, but ended up ghosting you—yet you feel the marriage is somehow more certain.

Why the rebound? Two key changes: First, the most hardheaded opponents—the Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA)—were worried that Section 604 of the bill, which provides liability protection for DeFi developers, would let criminals exploit loopholes. Last Friday, they officially withdrew their opposition and switched to neutrality. At the same time, the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives (NOBLE) publicly supported the bill for the first time in the country. When one group backs off and another steps in, resistance really does decrease.
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But don’t get too excited yet. The Senate needs 60 votes to pass, meaning at least 7 Democratic senators must cross party lines in support. And Elizabeth Warren and Van Hollen are now bringing up the Trump family’s crypto holdings, calling for a ban on elected officials issuing or endorsing personal tokens.

You think they’re going after Trump? They’re using the CLARITY Act as leverage.

The window is also tightening. The Senate reconvenes on July 13th, and before the summer recess starting August 7th is the final deadline—by the tightest count, it’s less than one month. BIT analysts also point out that the White House is drafting a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” framework, but BTC faces resistance at $65,955.

On the board, BTC is now consolidating around $63,100. This level can go up or down—bulls and bears are both watching the final direction of the bill.

Remember, at a critical juncture like this, don’t rush to bet on the direction. Let the news fly for a bit—waiting until the dust settles before you act isn’t too late.

Do you think the CLARITY Act can pass before August 7th? Drop your thoughts in the comments.👇

#CLARITY法案 #BTC #加密货币监管 #行情分析