$63k BTC, Would You Still Buy It?

First, look at the chart: up 6% in the past 7 days, a violent rebound from around $58k. It briefly touched $64.4k during the session, spurred by news of Trump's support for crypto. But now it's back to hovering around $63k, stuck in a difficult position.

The Fear and Greed Index is at 26, indicating fear. You're not mistaken—the price has rebounded, but the market is still fearful.

First thing: MicroStrategy sold coins, and the market didn't crash.

MicroStrategy sold 3,588 BTC in two batches from June 29 to July 5,

cashing out $216 million to pay preferred stock dividends.

This is the largest Bitcoin sale in the company's history and the third sale since launching its Bitcoin strategy in 2020. The first sale at the end of May was only 32 BTC; this time it directly sold 3,588 BTC—a 100x increase.

MicroStrategy's board has authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin in the future. The "never sell" promise is officially off the table.

Second thing: After eight consecutive weeks of ETF outflows, the trend finally reversed.

On July 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $266 million, the largest single-day net inflow since May, ending an eight-week outflow streak.

BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed $209 million of that.

In June, ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.3 billion, the worst month on record. Bitcoin was once pushed down to around $58k.

Third thing: The macro environment is easing.

The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains at 3.5%-3.75%. The market expects an 82% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at the July 28-29 meeting.

More importantly—the U.S. two-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen below the Fed's 2% target, suggesting a more accommodative monetary policy ahead. Oil prices have dropped significantly, and June CPI may decline month-over-month.

Once rate cut expectations heat up, Bitcoin, a high-beta asset, could exhibit elasticity you wouldn't believe.

The battle between bulls and bears is up to you.

On one side:

ETFs ended eight weeks of outflows with a single-day inflow of $266 million

Whales are accumulating around $60k

Trump publicly supports cryptocurrency

Inflation expectations are cooling, and the liquidity turning point is near

Fear index at 26—historically, a low level often represents an opportunity

On the other side:

MicroStrategy's first large-scale sale, authorized to sell up to $1.25 billion

Down more than 50% from the $126k high

Geopolitical tensions (the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran heating up)

Tech stock sell-off dragging down risk assets

Whether ETF inflows can be sustained remains unknown

Key levels

CoinGlass data shows: above $65,050 there is $620 million in shorts waiting to be liquidated; below $62,012 there is $558 million in longs facing liquidation.

Whichever direction it breaks, it will cause violent volatility.

Upper resistance: $64,000-$64,300 → $65,050 (short squeeze trigger) → $67k-$70k

Lower support: $62k-$62.5k → $60,800 → $58k-$59,000 (hard floor)

Short-term traders:

Buy the dip at $62,000-$62,500, stop loss at $61.8k. If $64.5k breaks with volume, chase, target $65,000-$67,000.

Medium-term holders:

Accumulate in batches below $60k, add at $58,000. This is the level after a 50% decline from the $126k high, not expensive in the long run. Target $70,000+, but requires patience.

Risk warning:

Position size no more than 30% of total funds

Whether ETF inflows continue is the biggest variable

July 14 CPI data is the next key catalyst

Geopolitical conflicts could trigger flash crashes at any time

Leverage no more than 3x; survival is most important

Bitcoin's current position is like March 2020

Back then, the pandemic hit, Bitcoin dropped from $10k to $3,800, and everyone cried "to zero." What happened? A year later, it rose to $60k.

A bull market is never smooth sailing. Every time you think "this time it's different," the script is actually the same—the fearful cut losses, the greedy catch falling knives, and the patient make money.

At $63k Bitcoin, are you the fearful one or the greedy one?#GUSD年化升至3.8% #Strategy上周减持3588枚BTC #SK海力士ADR获超额认购 $ETH $BTC $SOL