#WeakNFPShakesRateHikeOdds

The 57k NFP number caused everything to collapse instantly, marking the aftermath three days after the July rate hike narrative ignited. Last Friday (July 6) was shattered, and now it is Monday. Approximately three trading sessions have passed since the release of the undisputedly most important economic data for 2026. Allow me to share with the community the latest interpretation of what this means for us, three days after the 57K NFP data, as the market has fully digested it.
The 57k NFP result was not merely below expectations—it completely shattered them: analysts had forecast 113,000.
April and May data were revised downward, reducing total employment by 74,000 jobs. Puzzlingly, the 4.2% unemployment rate fell despite a historic loss of 832,000 jobs, while the labor force participation rate contracted significantly. The market received three clear bearish signals in this report simultaneously. This triggered a textbook collapse as expected: the probability of a July rate hike plummeted from 43% to below 20% in one day.
Any expected date for future rate hikes shifted from October to December, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell by nearly 40 points.
Gold rose over 2%, while Bitcoin surged from $57,950 to a high of $62,053. Now, three days later, the key question is whether this relief rally can sustain. Bitcoin currently sits at $62,191—the initial price action appears to have held and extended further.
Gold broke through the $4,200 mark today, extending Friday's momentum. Ethereum is currently trading at $1,737, while XRP has risen 13% in the first three days of July. Solana has gained 18.6% over the past week.
Clearly, the macro-level relief trade is not a temporary phenomenon; it is continuing into the new week.
The narrative of continued Fed tightening appears not just shaken but has effectively retreated. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows the probability of a July rate hike has fallen to about 17.6%, further below Friday's initial assessment. Market participants used the weekend to assess the data and did not downplay the dovish shift—they deepened it. This strongly suggests the NFP report is not being viewed as a simple one-off anomaly.
The impact of this NFP report goes beyond typical deviations because it compounds with other macro indicators.
Fed Chair Waller made a statement at the ECB's Sintra conference two days before the NFP release, saying, "Inflation risks have significantly declined." Oil prices also fell below $70 per barrel, down 40% from the highs during the Iran conflict, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has helped ease inflationary pressures in energy markets. Three independent bearish indicators—from the Fed Chair's comments, labor market data, to commodity prices—converged within the same week; this is no coincidence; it points to a major macro regime shift.
The July 29-30 FOMC meeting chaired by Waller now becomes the focal point on the calendar. This will be his second time chairing the meeting, and this time he will face a markedly different data backdrop. Earlier concerns about PCE inflation (4.1%) may ease.
If oil prices remain below $70 and the labor market weakens further, a lower June PCE reading could provide Waller with a reason to hold rates steady without appearing to deviate from his hawkish stance.
The return of the CLARITY Act to the Senate on July 13 will also be an important catalyst, with Polymarket giving a 48% probability and Galaxy Research giving 50-50, indicating nearly 50% likelihood of crypto regulatory clarity. Combined with these improved macro conditions, the market landscape entering the second half of July appears the most promising since Q4 2025. Frankly: a single weak NFP does not represent a definitive trend reversal. If the July employment report turns out strong, concerns about rate hikes will inevitably resurface.
The next six weeks will be critical to determine whether last Friday's report was a false alarm or a harbinger of changing labor market dynamics.
However, as of Monday, July 6, the macro environment for Bitcoin and risk assets has improved significantly compared to a week ago. And in trading, the less hostile the environment, the more you can operate. Three days after the 57K NFP report shook the financial system, Bitcoin holds above $62,000, gold surges past $4,200, and rate hike expectations continue to decline—do you believe the July 29-30 FOMC meeting will bring a true policy shift, driving crypto assets toward $70,000? Or will another strong data point before the meeting rekindle rate hike fears?
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