【July 7 Market | Guanlan Morning Comment】

BTC 63,500 · ETH 1,780 · SOL 82 · Gold 4,140

Market structure unchanged, bulls still in control.

First, three most important macro variables:

1⃣ US-Iran negotiations enter critical period

Ceasefire agreement signed in April, but Hormuz issue is stuck.

Failure → Oil prices surge → Gold rises again.

Success → Geopolitical premium fades → Risk assets benefit.

Gold at 4140 is pricing in uncertainty.

2⃣ Fed remains hawkish

New Chair Walsh, unabashedly hawkish stance.

Market pricing: October may see a rate hike, not a cut.

This Wednesday July 8 FOMC minutes — key focus.

Next week July 14 CPI — determines subsequent narrative.

3⃣ Employment weakens but Fed doesn't soften

Last week NFP: +57k, expected +115k, significantly missed.

Unemployment rate 4.2%, labor participation rate fell to lowest since March 2021.

Data is weakening, but Walsh's logic:

Better a slower economy than losing control of inflation expectations.

Conclusion:

Liquidity environment moderately tight, but BTC holding 63,500 in this context

shows market demand for crypto doesn't rely on loose narrative anymore.

This is a qualitative change.

Operational level:

SuperTrend remains green, bullish structure intact.

Resistance above 65,000-66,800, support below 61,500-62,000.

No signal, hold positions as planned, don't be swayed by noise.

(Personal opinion, not investment advice)

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