BIT: Bitcoin rebound has started, but breaking through $66k still needs more confirmation signals.

Shenchao TechFlow News, July 7, BIT stated in its latest weekly market observation that Bitcoin has recovered most of its June losses last week, reclaimed the 200-week moving average, and entered the key confirmation range of $63k to $66k; Ethereum showed stronger weekly gains, indicating that this rebound has broader market participation.

BIT pointed out that the June non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, which was the main macro catalyst driving this rebound, reflecting that tight policies are cooling the economy. However, the June CPI data to be released on July 14 will be an important test before the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. If the inflation data is weak, it may support Bitcoin to effectively break through $66k; if the data is strong, it may weaken the current dovish expectations.

In terms of fund flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first significant net inflow after 10 consecutive days of net outflows, but BIT believes that a single-day improvement is not enough to confirm a trend, and sustained ETF inflows remain a key observation indicator. In the derivatives market, institutional funds are more inclined to buy put options and sell call options, reflecting that they are mainly hedging rebound gains rather than actively betting on further breakthroughs; retail investors are still inclined to chase the upward structure.

In addition, Strategy disclosed the sale of 3,588 Bitcoins to fulfill dividend obligations after the report was released, a significant increase from the previous sale of only 32 Bitcoins. BIT believes that this brings potential corporate treasury supply pressure to the market, and also makes the two confirmation signals of "sustained ETF inflows" and "breakout with volume above $66k" more important.