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Here is the translation into American English:
Bitcoin and Ethereum latest trends, entry timing, trading is never a game—only by clearly seeing the situation can you go further.
I. Current chart basis (Daytime early session)
ETH current price approx. $1814, 24-hour slight uptick, following BTC with a deep V recovery; BTC currently oscillating around $64,200, ETH highly correlated with BTC, with daily movements closely tied to the big coin.
Core moving average structure
- MA50: 1803, EMA50: 1806
- Price slightly above short-term moving averages, short-term bulls hold a slight advantage; daily chart still in mid-term pressure zone, reversal signal not confirmed.
II. Key support/resistance (24-hour valid range for the day)
Resistance levels (top to bottom)
1. First strong resistance: 1850-1865 (previous rebound high, dense congestion zone—breakout needed to open upside space)
2. Secondary resistance: 1830 (intraday short-term pressure level, early session multiple rejection points)
3. Intraday weak resistance: 1820
Support levels (bottom to top)
1. Short-term strong support: 1800-1805 (confluence with 50-day MA, intraday bullish lifeline)
2. Mid-level support: 1775-1785 (yesterday's V-reversal low, break below would destroy rebound structure)
3. Extreme support: 1740 (starting point of this rebound, loss would return to weak oscillation)
III. Technical cycle analysis
1. Daily timeframe (mid-term)
Previously suppressed by ETH spot ETF net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks, institutional buying weak; although daily chart has stabilized short-term, it hasn't broken above the key 1900 threshold, overall still a repair rebound after decline, not a reversal of the bearish trend.
2. 4-hour timeframe (intraday primary cycle)
4-hour MACD above zero line with slight red bars extending, bullish momentum moderate; RSI not yet overbought, still has room for a small push higher, but heavy selling pressure above 1850 makes a unilateral rally difficult.
3. 1-hour short-term
Indicators show slight bearish divergence, white session likely high-level oscillation, small pullback to accumulate strength; a healthy move would be first retesting 1800 support then rebounding; only a direct break above 1865 could trigger a test of 1900.
IV. News and macro drivers
1. Positive support
U.S. June non-farm payrolls missed expectations, raising rate cut expectations, U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakening, risk assets overall benefiting from liquidity support, driving crypto oversold rebound; BTC ETF ended consecutive days of outflows, capital sentiment slightly improved, indirectly supporting ETH.
2. Persistent negative pressure
- ETH spot ETF continuous net outflows, institutional long-term allocation weaker than BTC;
- ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, capital favors Bitcoin, Ethereum elasticity weaker;
- No Ethereum upgrade, regulatory catalyst, etc., rise entirely driven by the broader market, lacking independent upward momentum.
3. No major economic data today
No U.S. CPI, non-farm data tonight, all-day movement purely based on technicals, BTC linkage, and intraday capital battle, volatility smaller than data-driven days.
V. Full-day price path projection (two scenarios)
Scenario 1: Bullish healthy recovery (higher probability)
White session small pullback to 1800-1805 support, then steady upward in the afternoon, testing 1830-1850 resistance; if unable to hold 1850, evening pullback to around 1810 narrow oscillation, full-day range 1790-1855, mainly oscillating, no trend day.
Scenario 2: Rebound end with second pullback (lower probability)
BTC pressured at 64,700 falls, dragging ETH below the 1800 moving average support, testing 1775 support; if 1775 also lost, this rebound ends, returning to 1700-1760 weak oscillation range.
VI. Chart core conclusion
Today ETH mainly oscillates at high levels, no unilateral big rally/sell-off:
1. Short-term relying on 1800 moving average for repair momentum, but above 1850 strong resistance difficult to break in one go;
2. Mid-term bearish trend remains unchanged, this is only an oversold rebound, don't blindly chase reversal;
3. All operations anchored to BTC movement; if big coin doesn't break 63,100, ETH's short-term rebound structure remains intact.